For Russia, Repelling Incursion Matters Less Than Advancing in Donbas

The Ukrainian incursion has “had a shocking effect on the Russians,” Christopher G. Cavoli, a U.S. Army general and NATO’s top military commander, said in remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations on Aug. 15.

But, he added: “That won’t persist forever. They’ll gather themselves together and react accordingly.”

Russia’s slow start in Kursk

Officials and experts said the Russian forces in Kursk had neither the numbers nor the experience to mount a quick defense when Ukraine’s troops blitzed over the border on Aug. 6. Those who fought did not have enough weapons or other equipment to counter the Ukrainians.

Intelligence provided by Western allies gave Ukraine a clearer picture of where Russian troops were located in the region, helping them to decide what could be captured without much resistance, said Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian and Soviet diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation in Austria.

Russia has deployed mostly reserve units and troops from areas in southern and northeastern Ukraine that are not part of Moscow’s main thrust toward Pokrovsk. American officials assess that Russia needs at least 50,000 troops to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk.

But already, Colonel Reisner said, the Russian reinforcements have “slowed, noticeably” Ukraine’s momentum in the region. And it appears that Moscow has calculated that diverting enough resources to fully repel the incursion from a tactically insignificant area would not be the best use of its military power — especially as it compels Ukraine to expend its own assets to hold the territory it has taken.

“If you throw everything you’ve got to Kursk, then you are playing the Ukrainian game,” Mr. Sokov said.

The risks of collateral damage

With its intense bombardment of Ukraine this week, Russia has demonstrated that it has more than enough attack drones and missiles to devastate Ukrainian troops on its territory — assuming Moscow now has the intelligence to ascertain where they are.

But Mr. Sokov said Moscow may be mindful of harming its own citizens with a scorched-earth response in Kursk. “If you can, you might actually want to be a bit more selective about your targets,” he said.

There is also the specter of an accident at the Kursk nuclear power plant, located about 25 miles from the fighting. Operations at the plant are still active, even though it has no protective dome and is therefore “extremely exposed and fragile,” Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ atomic agency, said after a visit there on Tuesday.

Mr. Grossi said he was shown fragments of a drone that Russia has claimed tried to attack the plant, although he did not assign blame or responsibility. But if the nuclear reactor was hit, “the consequences could be extremely serious,” he said.

It is possible Ukraine is holding back some of its firepower in case it decides to launch a second surprise attack. Some Russian military bloggers have urged Moscow against sending major reinforcements to Kursk that could leave Russia vulnerable elsewhere, said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.