The welfare-theft scheme was public in 2024, but Trump and Republicans didn’t realize its potency as a political attack
The welfare-fraud scandal that led Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to abandon his 2026 re-election bid was hiding in plain sight when he was vetted for the 2024 Democratic presidential ticket as former Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate.
The scope of the theft has grown since then, but there were ample warning signs. Federal prosecutors had already charged roughly 70 people with defrauding programs meant to fund children’s meals during the pandemic. A nonpartisan legislative auditor had delivered a report saying the state had “failed to act on warning signs” and was “ill-prepared to respond.”
While the fraud had received local media coverage, it hadn’t risen in an expansive way in the national conversation as Walz became a vice presidential candidate. A debate between now Vice President JD Vance and Walz in October 2024 included no mention of the scandal.
The biggest change since then is President Trump’s heightened interest in the issue and his ability to harness his administration to highlight it and direct political heat in Walz’s direction, with the help of a growing right-wing social and alternative media landscape.
Trump posted on social media about the scandal on Nov. 21 as the topic went viral in the conservative universe. His post came two days after a report published by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, that alleged millions of dollars in stolen funds from Minnesota were sent to Somalia and ended up with al-Shabaab, the Somali branch of al Qaeda.
Just after Christmas, a viral video made allegations—some quickly debunked by Minnesota news outlets—of fraud involving daycare centers. The video, promoted by Vance and billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk, was made by right-wing content creator Nick Shirley, who attended a White House event last fall aimed at countering the so-called antifa movement.
The Trump administration this week announced plans to freeze $10 billion in social services and child-care funding to Minnesota and four other Democratic-leaning states, claiming widespread theft. The U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will hold a hearing Wednesday on Minnesota fraud.
How much has been stolen through fraudulent meal and housing programs, Medicaid services and more is still being debated. The state’s largest newspaper, the Minnesota Star Tribune, using court records, documented more than $200 million to date, while a federal prosecutor and Trump have said the number could be in the billions.
Walz’s political collapse is the latest example of his party’s struggle to present a steady counterweight to Trump and overcome dysfunction during the Republican president’s second term.
The Minnesota saga also serves as a warning sign for ambitious Democratic governors facing re-election—including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland and JB Pritzker of Illinois—and the political risks associated with governing if something goes wrong.
Bill Daley, commerce secretary to President Bill Clinton and chief of staff to President Barack Obama, said Walz’s fall was a “perfect storm” that included the fraud scandal and numerous other factors. He noted Minnesota is a competitive state, so there was pressure for the governor not to pull his party down more broadly.
A person close to Walz said the governor expected a more nationalized campaign, but that the scale of the deployment of the federal government against him was more than he anticipated. The person said the decision to abort the re-election bid wasn’t based on any one thing.
Walz previously came close to not running again before he announced his bid for a third term in September, as he confronted exhaustion from crisis situations that have plagued his tenure.
In recent weeks, Trump maintained a steady drumbeat of criticism of Walz’s response to the scandal, while his administration pushed resources into the state to pursue fraud investigations.
“President Trump believes Walz is criminally liable, and his drop out from the race may be a strong sign that he is,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. A Walz spokesman responded simply by saying that is like the “pot calling the kettle black.”
Speaking to reporters Tuesday in St. Paul, Minn., Walz lashed out at Trump and suggested the White House will keep trying to hurt his blue-leaning state. He said the president is seeking distractions from the Epstein files, economic challenges and foreign entanglements
“I caution Minnesotans: This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Walz said. “This is because Donald Trump is in trouble.”
Minnesota’s fraud investigation was well under way when Harris’s team vetted Walz during a truncated process in the summer of 2024. While Harris’s team was aware of the investigation, it wasn’t viewed as something that would offer a damaging line of attack for Republicans, according to people familiar with the process.
The people said they had more concerns about Walz’s past claims about his National Guard retirement rank and a 2018 comment about “weapons of war that I carried in war” when he was never deployed in a combat zone.
Walz’s political fall was as rapid as his rise. He became the unlikely Democratic vice presidential nominee after he pushed through a progressive agenda in Minnesota and displayed an ability to be a political attack dog—a traditional role for VP candidates—while wearing a smile on his face and oozing folksiness.
In the wake of his loss on the national ticket in November 2024, Walz lost a close friend and colleague in a political assassination, saw his poll numbers soften at home, faced threats against himself and his family, and was struggling to confront the white-hot scrutiny surrounding the fraud scandal that Trump amplified.
While the president helped accelerate the Minnesota governor’s fall, Walz also made mistakes.
Minnesota political analysts say he didn’t address the fraud problem loudly enough or early enough and that his progressive agenda turned off some independent voters. A December poll by KSTP-TV and SurveyUSA found more than two-thirds of Minnesota voters said he needed to do more to stop fraud.
There was also Walz fatigue. His approval rating in Minnesota had fallen below 50% and his original plan to try for a third term was stretching the bounds of political tradition in a state where no previous governor had served more than 10 years.
Walz’s exit could prove to be a short-term victory for the GOP. A weakened Walz might have been an easier opponent for one of the roughly dozen Republicans seeking their party’s nomination ahead of an August primary.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the state’s senior senator and a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, told CNN Tuesday that she is “seriously considering” a run for governor. She won 56% of the vote in her most recent statewide election in 2024 and is viewed as more moderate than Walz.
If she runs, Republicans will try to present her as equally responsible for the fraud as Walz. Her experience as a former prosecutor could help her brush off those claims.
The most recent entrant into the Minnesota GOP primary for governor, MyPillow Chief Executive Officer Mike Lindell, has faced legal and financial troubles for spreading false claims the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Trump because of widespread fraud.
Trump gave the businessman a shout out last month while speaking in North Carolina. He stopped short of a formal endorsement, but said Lindell “deserves to be governor.”
In an interview, Lindell said Klobuchar will face the same questions as Walz on fraud if she decides to run. “This was under her watch, too,” he said.
Write to John McCormick at mccormick.john@wsj.com and Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com
