Donald Trump’s attack on Iran has given Vladimir Putin an unexpected and dangerous new leverage – and it leaves us all exposed.
Russia is suddenly relevant to the world again.
It’s a global pariah for its invasions of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.
But US President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran has given Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpected new diplomatic leverage.
Not nukes. Not tanks. Not oil.
But fertiliser.
“Western governments never imagined that fertilisers could carry such strategic weight, and they have no playbook to counter Russia’s fertiliser diplomacy,” warns European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) analyst Agathe Demarais.
The United States and Israel have swept through Iran’s air and ground defences.
They’ve assassinated senior clerics and politicians. Bombed nuclear facilities and missile manufacturing plants. Sank ships and destroyed aircraft.
Iran, for its part, has closed the Strait of Hormuz to international trade.
“For Moscow, this is a golden scenario — whether Hormuz reopens in just three days or in three years,” says Demarais.
Nations are turning to Russia, cap in hand.
They’re desperate to secure new sources of fertiliser for their crops.
Russia is the second-largest producer in the world, behind its closest ally, China.
Russia is the biggest exporter. Or at least was, before sanctions tightened its trade after the invasion of Ukraine.
President Trump thought Iran would capitulate after just three or four weeks. Eight weeks later, it maintains a chokehold on Hormuz.
And President Putin doesn’t need the Strait to feed the world.
“The Kremlin is now weaponising access to these supplies in a bid to curry favour in the global south and secure Western sanctions relief,” Demarais explains.
“This generous offer comes with a catch …”
From feast to famine
Canberra is crowing over securing an extra 250,000 tonnes of white crystalline urea. It’s the main form of nitrogen-based fertiliser used by the agricultural industry.
“The resulting restrictions have a very real effect for the season that is about to be planted — one that will be felt across winter crops, including cereals such as wheat, barley and oats and oilseeds like canola,” assesses CSIRO Agriculture and Food research unit deputy director Dr Alison Bentley.
It may need more.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts warns that a “super” El Niño weather pattern is developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures there are 2C higher than normal. And that means global weather disruption – and agricultural impact.
“If we face a climate shock in addition to this world price shock, then I think we could start to see real concerns for food insecurity later on in the year,” International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) analyst James Thurlow warned last week.
Global fertiliser manufacturers are beginning to idle their plants as supplies of Middle Eastern ingredients dry up. That’s half of the world’s supply of urea and one-fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Things haven’t improved as the two-week ceasefire with Iran winds down.
Urea prices have soared by some 40 per cent. That’s made even worse by the higher fuel costs involved in moving and distributing this critical crop multiplier.
“For every dollar invested in nitrogen fertiliser, farmers effectively recover only 30 to 50 cents in harvestable product,” the CSIRO notes.
Fertilising is a wasteful process. Only 17 per cent of its nitrogen ends up in food plants. The rest is lost to the environment.
And the narrowing cost-benefit ratio now makes the prospect of even planting crops a careful consideration.
Authoritarian appetites
The Axis of Authoritarians (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran) is all over the crisis.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov this week.
They publicly addressed the global impact of shipping constraints on the Strait of Hormuz and the urgent need to offset disruptions to critical supplies of oil, gas and fertiliser ingredients.
“Russia can, of course, make up for the resource shortfall facing both China and other countries that are interested in working with us on an equal and mutually beneficial basis,” Lavrov told Chinese state-controlled media.
It’s an opportunity for both disruptive powers.
Fuel is a powerful diplomatic lever.
Second only to that of food.
Both nuclear powers have secure supplies and deep stockpiles.
And both leaders know a prolonged Iran crisis will strangle the world’s food supply, and strengthen their positions to name any price for what they have to offer.
Global economic research firm Wood Mackenzie warns that, even if the ceasefire is extended indefinitely, it will take many months to restore oil, gas and fertiliser flows to normal levels.
The world has already lost almost eight weeks of production. But most Middle Eastern nations can only store enough supply for two weeks. That shortfall will take time to replace.
On top of this, the precision-timed rhythm of global shipping movements must be revived.
“Shipping logistics will remain the constraint on upstream recovery for several weeks,” the Wood Mackenzie report states.
Retired naval Commodore Steve Prest writes for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that this means current fertiliser restrictions “may well bake-in food inflation later in the year”.
Meanwhile, we’ve had a hint of what that may be in store.
Russian Security Council deputy secretary Alexander Venediktov last month stated Moscow was eager to supply the Global South (previously dubbed the Third World) with what it needs.
But only if they participate in new Russian-Chinese-led networks, such as the BRICS economic block, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for defence, and even Russia’s own loose Commonwealth of Independent States.
Their aim is to topple existing US- and UN-based organisations and shift global trade away from the US dollar.
“In other words, Moscow is now attaching strings to its fertiliser shipments,” warns Demarais.
But embattled Ukraine has been striving to hit it where it hurts: the wallet.
Russian reflux
Attack drones this week struck the Apatit chemical plant in Cherepovets, northwestern Russia.
Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Robert Brovdi told media that the plant was targeted because it produced hundreds of thousands of tons of ammonia, saltpetre and nitric acid.
These are used to manufacture explosives. But nitric acid and ammonia are also core ingredients in fertilisers.
Similar attacks have struck Russian oil terminals, refineries and other chemical facilities.
This casts doubt on Moscow’s ability to deliver on its promises.
“Russia does not have the capacity to beef-up fertiliser exports anyway,” states Demarais.
The ammonia-carrying Togliatti-Odessa pipeline to the Black Sea export shipping terminals has been offline since 2022. And it must already find new ways to deliver existing large orders from Brazil and India.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has reportedly moved to impose strict new export caps to prevent a war-induced shortage for domestic farmers.
KiberBoroshno confirms black smoke rising from two out of three ammonia units with a total capacity of 900,000 tons per year. There is also a possible hit on the ammonia storage facility of these units. Following the start of the full-scale invasion, the storage facility was… https://t.co/oufVGcsK0l pic.twitter.com/Ro3aNy2AVb
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 13, 2026
It’s strategically-induced chaos.
“It is this stranglehold on the World Economy that Iran hopes will impose such economic and political costs that their adversaries will be forced to ‘tap out’ and cut a deal,” he explains.
Iran may have lost the shooting war.
But Presidents Trump and Netanyahu have failed to win the economic war.
Now, the United States is attempting to impose a blockade on top of the blockade.
It wants to starve Iran (and, by implication, China and India) in the same way the rest of the global economy is being starved.
“By blockading Iranian ports, it is seeking to destabilise the Iranian economy and bring the Iranian regime to the point of capitulation,” the Commodore adds.
“War is an extension of politics by other means.”
But who will fall to their knees first?
And is there a risk some will stand up and fight?
“The biggest risk is from escalation, either directly or indirectly, with some of the big economies (such as China) that will now come under increased pressure as a result of this action,” Commodore Prest warns.
“It remains to be seen how they will respond but, if the impacts start to bite, respond they will. We live in dangerous times.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer
