Hurricane Dorian is not your typical Florida tropical cyclone

Hurricane Dorian has been a tricky forecast and an unusual storm from the start — both because of its small size and the surrounding weather systems that will determine its fate. Typically, a storm located in its position of more than 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico on Thursday afternoon would not make landfall on the Florida coast.

We can look to past storms for guidance on how Dorian may — or may not — behave. Historical analogues have their limits, however, as each storm is governed by its own set of circumstances.

As of 11 a.m. Thursday, Dorian was swirling over 21.4 degrees north latitude, 67.2 degrees west longitude. Since 1947, a NOAA database shows that 30 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of this location over the open ocean, including the previous iteration of Dorian in late July 2013. (The National Hurricane Center recycles names every six years unless a storm causes enough damage/casualties to prompt the name’s retirement.)

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