After the president’s arrest, what next for South Korea?

The presidency of South Korea can be a treacherous job. Past office-holders have been impeached and even assassinated. But until January 15th, when investigators took Yoon Suk Yeol into custody, a sitting president had never been arrested.

Mr Yoon’s detention on insurrection charges stems from his brief attempt to impose martial law early last month. Since that self-coup failed, Mr Yoon has barricaded himself inside the presidential residence in central Seoul. The National Assembly impeached him on December 14th, temporarily suspending him from office and triggering a trial at the constitutional court. Separately, investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (cio) also opened a criminal case against him. (Insurrection is an exception to presidential immunity in South Korea.)

After Mr Yoon refused to appear for questioning, the cio sought a warrant for his arrest. The first attempt to serve it, on January 3rd, ended in failure after an hours-long standoff between police officers and a larger force of armed guards from the presidential security service, which chose to protect the president. In recent weeks the president’s residence has been reinforced with barbed wire and buses, gearing up for a second standoff.

The police came back better prepared on the morning of January 15th, with around 3,000 men, according to Yonhap, a South Korean news agency. They pushed past crowds of Mr Yoon’s supporters, who had gathered outside his residence. They breached the walls before dawn, using ladders to climb over fences. This time the bodyguards put up little resistance, and Mr Yoon relented, saying in a video statement that while he considered the warrant “illegal”, he co-operated in order to avoid “unpleasant bloodshed”.

The arrest brings the embarrassing standoff between different branches of the South Korean state to an end. But it is far from the finale in the unfolding drama. Investigators now have 48 hours to question Mr Yoon; they must seek an additional warrant to hold him for another 20 days. If an indictment is upheld, it will trigger a criminal trial that could theoretically end with a sentence of life imprisonment or, though very unlikely, even the death penalty. Mr Yoon has pledged to fight the charges. His lawyers argue that the cio has no legal mandate to investigate the president, and that the court that issued the arrest warrant does not have jurisdiction. “Unfortunately, the rule of law has collapsed in this country,” Mr Yoon declared in his statement.

In the meantime the constitutional court is pressing forward with its trial. Hearings formally began on January 14th, though they came to a halt just a few minutes later, owing to Mr Yoon’s refusal to attend. The next one will proceed on January 16th, regardless of the defendant’s presence. The entire process must conclude within 180 days of the day he was impeached; at least six of the eight judges hearing the case must vote in favour for the impeachment to stand. If Mr Yoon is ultimately removed from office, South Korea’s constitution mandates fresh presidential elections within 60 days.

The sustained turmoil is straining the country. The consumer-sentiment index dipped to 88.4 in December, from 100.7 a month earlier, the biggest single-month drop since the start of the covid-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate also rose from 2.7% in November to 3.7% in December, the highest rate since mid-2021. Following the impeachment in early 2017 of Park Geun-hye, one of Mr Yoon’s predecessors, foreign direct investment fell by nearly 40% during the subsequent quarter; the current crisis could make investors similarly skittish. The shaky economic conditions mean that the Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting on January 16th, which would mark the third straight round of monetary easing. Choi Sang-mok, the deputy prime minister who took over as acting president on December 27th following the impeachment of the first acting president, Han Duck-soo, has said the government may also consider additional stimulus measures.

Mr Yoon’s intransigence in the face of the charges against him has helped rally his supporters and further polarised the country’s politics. Though a majority of South Koreans still support his impeachment, their numbers have shrunk: 64% say the president should be impeached, down from 75% a month ago, while 32% say he should be reinstated to office, according to polling by Gallup Korea. The president’s People Power Party has also seen its ratings rebound to 34% from 24% a month earlier. Approval of the main opposition force, the Democratic Party, has dropped from 48% to 36% in the same period. That probably will not save Mr Yoon. But it suggests that the country’s political strife will outlast him.