Where Russia Is Advancing in Ukraine and What It Hopes to Gain

Peace talks have stalled, bringing focus back to where the war will ultimately be decided: the battlefield. Russia is seeking sufficient front-line gains to force Kyiv to consent to its demands, which essentially amount to a capitulation. Ukraine wants to hold Russia off and do enough damage to its forces to convince the Kremlin that the cost of not doing a deal is too high.

Moscow is pushing on several fronts, probing for weak points and trying to capitalize on its hefty manpower advantage by forcing Ukraine to defend across the entire 600-mile front line. It will also be tougher and costlier for Ukraine to stop Russian infantry assaults now that leaves have returned to trees, obscuring the view of Kyiv’s drones, which had been its first line of defense during the winter.

As the Kremlin continues to pour men and materiel into Ukraine, its primary goal is to convince those in power in the West that Russia will inevitably win the war and any aid Western allies might offer to Kyiv would be wasted, said George Barros, an analyst focused on the conflict for the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

“The center of gravity for this war is not terrain—the place where it’s being decisively waged is the perception space in Western capitals,” said Barros. Referring to the Russians, he added: “If the map is moving, they’re able to say, ‘We’re making progress. Ukraine is screwed. How many more billions are you going to spend?’”

Front line in eastern Ukraine

 

Russian gains since April 1

Russian forces as of April 1

Russian

forces

UKRAINE

Kramatorsk

Bakhmut

Chasiv Yar

Kostyantynivka

T0504

Horlivka

Pokrovsk

Avdiivka

10 miles

10 km

Note: As of June 3
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Andrew Barnett/WSJ

Key to Moscow’s latest offensive is the eastern Ukrainian city Kostyantynivka, a crucial logistical hub on the edge of the front line.

Earlier this year, Russia began moving troops attacking Pokrovsk, a city further south, toward Kostyantynivka. The shift indicated a change in the direction of its efforts but not necessarily its strategy, analysts said.

Recent assaults on Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk have proved that Russia is prepared to expend troops, weapons and time trying to capture cities even if they have little strategic value. The battle for Kostyantynivka is likely to be just as brutal and drawn-out, according to Barros.

After a recent advance south of the city, Russia now surrounds Kostyantynivka on three sides.

“The city is rapidly transforming into a front line,” said one senior lieutenant who is fighting in the area.

Advances in attack-drone technology are also making it more difficult for Ukraine to keep the city supplied. Russian fiber-optic drones—which are connected by a thin electronic cable to their pilots to protect them from electric jammers—can now travel up to 25 miles, roughly twice as far as they could a year ago, putting roads connecting the city, and supply vehicles, within range.

“The strikes are frequent and increasingly precise,” the senior lieutenant said. Defensive netting is effective, but hasn’t been widely implemented, he said.

Front line in northern Ukraine near Sumy

 

Russian advances in Ukraine

Ukrainian positions in Russia

Ukrainian positions on Sept. 10

Russian

forces

UKRAINE

Rylsk

Sudzha

Ukraine

Russia

Sumy

10 miles

10 km

Note: As of June 3
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Andrew Barnett/WSJ

In the north, Moscow’s forces have repelled Ukrainian troops who seized parts of Russia’s Kursk region after a lightning assault caught the Kremlin off guard last summer.

Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia has massed more than 50,000 troops in the area. In recent days, those forces have pushed across the border into Ukraine’s Sumy region, according to open-source analysts.

Villages near the border with Russia have been nearly flattened, according to one Ukrainian sergeant fighting in the area who said Russians outnumber Ukrainian troops in the region by around two-to-one.

The Russians, he said, appeared to be trying to take Yunakivka, where Ukrainian troops have set up defensive positions and store equipment.

“Their actual goal is Sumy,” the regional capital, which sits less than 20 miles from the border, he added.

Another infantryman in the Sumy region said the Russians also have an advantage in drones, which makes moving supplies and evacuating wounded very risky. 

“The pattern is familiar: The enemy wants to stretch our forces thin across a long front, drain our resources and wear us down,” he said, adding that so far, troop numbers meant that positions were still defensible. “They’re setting the stage,” he said of the Russians. “The pressure will only increase as the summer goes on.” 

Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said he didn’t expect Ukrainian lines to collapse but added that if Russia could get closer to Sumy, it would increase the Kremlin’s leverage in negotiations.

Front line in southern Ukraine

 

Russian gains since April 1

Russian forces as of April 1

Russian

forces

Pokrovsk

UKRAINE

Novomykolaivka

Zaporizhzhia

Velyka Novosilka

Orikhiv

10 miles

Tokmak

10 km

Note: As of June 3
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Andrew Barnett/WSJ

Even in areas where Russian progress has largely stalled out, Moscow’s forces are continuing assaults, hoping to make Ukrainians commit troops there.

Around Pokrovsk, Russia is attacking at all hours, according to one Ukrainian captain fighting in the area, even though such assaults have yielded little forward progress for months.

“They want to reach the border with Dnipropetrovsk oblast—it’s important to them symbolically,” a Ukrainian captain in the area said. “That’s why they keep going through open fields and dying there.”

Ukrainian officials say Moscow is also building up troops in the nearby Zaporizhzhia region. Some Ukrainian special forces have been deployed there to help hold back a possible offensive, according to people familiar with the matter.

“We anticipate worsening conditions across all directions this summer,” said the senior lieutenant in the Kostyantynivka area. “Personnel are exhausted. There are not enough rotations. Everyone is operating at the edge of their limits.”

Write to Ian Lovett at ian.lovett@wsj.com and Andrew Barnett at andrew.barnett@wsj.com