What we know so far about the US-Ukraine minerals deal

A joint fund 

Trump has demanded compensation for the US aid paid to Ukraine under the administration of former US president Joe Biden in the three years since Russia invaded in February 2022.

The US leader had sought $500 billion in compensation – around four times the amount that Washington has paid to Ukraine, which currently stands at $120 billion, according to the Kiel Institute, a German economic research body.

Zelensky rejected the demand, saying he would not sign off on an accord that "ten generations" of Ukrainians would be responsible for paying off.

A source in Kyiv with knowledge of the accord has since told AFP that this demand has been dropped from the most recent draft of the document.

It does, however, indicate that the United States and Ukraine should develop mineral resources together with revenues diverted to a joint US-Ukrainian fund.

"They removed all the clauses that did not suit us, in particular about $500 billion," the Ukrainian source said.

Vague on security 

Ukraine is adamant that any deal must include long-term and robust security guarantees that would help deter Russia from ever attacking again. So far, the deal has not detailed how the United States would ensure Ukraine's security.

Zelensky had already floated the idea of exchanging access to Ukrainian natural resources for security commitments in October last year as part of his five-point Victory Plan.

Ukraine ultimately wants NATO membership. But that option – a red line for the Kremlin – has been shelved by Washington for now.

Ukraine has also advocated for foreign peacekeeping troops to be deployed in the event of a ceasefire. But the United States has rejected this option while European countries are divided on the issue.

The text of the agreement on minerals may yet include a reference to Ukrainian security but without concrete guarantees. 

Discussions on this point are still underway, the Ukrainian source told AFP.

"There is a general clause that says America will invest in a stable and prosperous sovereign Ukraine," the source said, adding that there were mentions of "lasting peace" and of US support for "security guarantees".

What minerals? 

Ukraine holds some five percent of the world's mineral resources, which Trump wants to secure, but not all of them are yet exploited – or easily exploitable – and some lie in territory occupied by Russia.

The country is a notable producer of manganese (the world's eighth-largest producer, according to World Mining Data), titanium (11th) and graphite (14th), which is essential for electric batteries.

Ukraine has 20 percent of the world's estimated resources of graphite, according to France's Bureau of Geological and Mining Research (BRGM).

Ukraine has also said it "possesses one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe". However, the government added that the soft metal is not yet extracted.

Kyiv has said that "rare earth metals are known to exist in six deposits" and that an investment of $300 million would be needed to develop a deposit at Novopoltavske, which it claimed was one of the world's largest. 

The site is, however, controlled by Russian forces and the Kremlin has ruled out ceding territories it has captured since 2022 or the Crimean peninsula annexed in 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he supports US minerals investment in Russian-occupied regions.

The Shevchenko deposit of lithium, tantalum, niobium and beryllium lies less than 10 kilometres from the front line near Pokrovsk, where the Russian army is gaining ground against outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian forces.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)