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The $2.5 trillion Saudi Aramco IPO could undo Saudi Arabia's reform plans

Author: Business Insider
May 10, 2016 at 08:33

Then-Crown Prince Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, left, with his son Prince Mohammed in Riyadh,

Then-Crown Prince Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, left, with his son Prince Mohammed in Riyadh,
Saudi Arabia is trying to cure its"addiction" to oil by diversifying its economy. It wants to focus on other sectors, and the government has switched up its ministers for water, energy, health, and transport, among many others.

But it is also planning a three-way listing for its state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco. This conflicts slightly with Saudi Arabia's master plan to end its dependence on oil, which accounts for 77% of the country's revenue.

The kingdom could use the money f-rom a Saudi Aramco sale to diversify its economy in other ways, such as by expanding the country's Public Investment Fund to $2 trillion (£1.3 trillion), up f-rom $160 billion (£110 billion). The government said it would "become a hub for Saudi investment abroad, partly by raising money through selling shares in Aramco."

But it is not as straightforward as that.

Saudi Aramco controls about 10% of the world's oil output. Its record-breaking stock market listing is expected to value the company at $2.5 trillion. The initial public offering is scheduled for next year or 2018.

The Saudis are trying to convince ExxonMobil, China's Sinopec, and BP to take stakes in the listing, offering them long-term access to deals in exchange. On Tuesday the company is holding a meeting to outline its rapid growth plans.

CEO Amin Nasser says the group is hoping to add another 500,000 jobs to the economy, according to the BBC's Simon Jack, who was live tweeting the board meeting at the time of this article's publication.

Nasser said Saudi Aramco was going to grow every part of business despite falling oil prices, and Jack reported that Nasser even described the market as a "great opportunity for significant growth."

Jack also tweeted:

But how?

Saudi Aramco needs Saudi Arabia to stay oil-centric to flourish. The kingdom is listing just 5% of the company, worth $125 billion, on the public market.

That sale may give the country a short-term hit in cash to help with its Vision 2030 plan. But for the company to continue its crucial role in propping up the country's economy and finances it needs to make sure it expands and continues to have healthy revenues and profits to please shareholders.

Some analysts aren't convinced that the Vision 2030 plan is even doable.

"There was very little that was new in the Saudi government's 'Vision 2030' and there are still several key areas that policymakers have yet to address," Jason Tuvey, an economist for Capital Economics' Middle East division, said in a note to clients last month. "We don't buy into Mohammed bin Salman's assertion that Saudi Arabia will no longer be dependent on oil by 2020. In short, we were hoping for more."

Andy Critchlow at Breakingviews also highlights how Prince Mohammed's "grand vision to execute a similar rebalancing" of the economy as Dubai undertook in the 1980s "is blurry."

He said that while cutting state subsidies on electricity and creating a sovereign wealth fund was a good idea, Prince Mohammed needed to "target more radical reforms" to make Vision 2030 a reality.

So, if Saudi Aramco is at the centre of making this happen — by selling off a slice of shares to pay for diversification plans — the country needs to make sure that its focus is on its thriving oil sector.

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