Mexico’s president has ‘excellent’ talk with Trump, dismisses tariff threat
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke to President-elect Donald Trump after he threatened to impose tariffs and she hinted at retaliation in a letter.
MEXICO CITY — Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump agreed in a phone call that their countries will have a “good relationship,” she said Thursday, and she dismissed his threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexico’s exports if it didn’t stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the United States.
“There will not be a potential tariff war,” Sheinbaum told reporters in her daily news conference.
Sheinbaum and Trump have given dramatically different versions of the call Wednesday. Trump said on his Truth Social platform that Sheinbaum had agreed to “stop Migration through Mexico,” which would mean “effectively closing our Southern Border” immediately.
That prompted a response late Wednesday from Sheinbaum: “Mexico’s stance is not to close borders but to build bridges.”
The contradictory accounts reflected the uncertainty around the relationship between the United States and its top trading partner as Trump prepares to take office. Sheinbaum said Thursday that her government would continue policies launched under pressure from the Biden administration that have disrupted the flow of U.S.-bound migrants. Apprehensions at the U.S. border have plunged about 75 percent since December.
Both leaders said the conversation was positive: Trump called it “wonderful”; Sheinbaum said “we agreed there will be a good relationship.” But it was unclear whether the tariff threat had subsided. Sheinbaum said they didn’t broach the subject.
Gabriel Guerra, a former Mexican diplomat, said the change in tone from Monday indicated that Trump wasn’t seeking to impose tariffs but to score a political victory.
“He can now say his communiqué [on tariffs] was so strong and powerful, and the best communiqué in the history of the world, and he got Mexico to quickly comply,” said Guerra, a communications consultant.
But in reality, he said, Sheinbaum’s comments suggest she hadn’t committed to any dramatic change. “This is going to be tinkering with what we’re already doing,” he said.
By Sheinbaum’s account, Trump appeared to lack basic knowledge about current conditions in Mexico. She said he asked about fentanyl use, which is far lower than in the United States. He expressed concern about a migrant caravan that formed recently in southern Mexico. While video images of such processions alarmed Americans in 2018, during Trump’s presidency, no similar caravan has reached the United States since then. She assured him that this one wouldn’t, either, she said.
Trump shocked governments and businesses Monday when he said he would slap the 25 percent tariff on Mexico and Canada, the United States’ two largest trading partners, unless they stop the “invasion” of fentanyl and migrants. Sheinbaum initially responded angrily, threatening tariffs of her own. But her tone changed after the conversation Wednesday, which she described as “excellent.”
Asked about the leaders’ different characterizations of the call, Sheinbaum told reporters, “Everyone has their own manner of communicating.” She added, “We will never shut down the border.”
Mexico sends 80 percent of its exports to the United States. Trump’s tariffs, if enacted, could tip the country into recession, economists said. But Mexico is a critical U.S. trade partner too.
Many American corporations, from raspberry vendors to carmakers, make their goods in cross-border chains of production. Not only would tariffs on Mexican exports raise prices for American consumers, economists say — they also would hit U.S. companies that manufacture in Mexico or rely on the country for parts or raw materials. The economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said Trump’s threatened tariffs could result in 400,000 Americans losing their jobs.
Even if the tariff threat subsides, the neighbors still face a rocky period.
The United States maintains a significant trade deficit with Mexico and is concerned about rising Chinese investment in its neighbor. If Trump carries out a plan to deport many of the estimated 11 million migrants who are in the United States unlawfully, Mexico will probably be the country hit hardest. About half of undocumented immigrants are from Mexico, analysts say.
Trump has also gone so far as to threaten unilateral U.S. military action to stop the arrival of fentanyl from Mexico, where the opioid is made by crime groups using chemicals imported from Asia. Any incursion into Mexico would enrage a population still angered by U.S. invasions in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Sheinbaum said Trump had asked about whether fentanyl use is a serious problem in Mexico. It isn’t, she responded — because “Mexican families take care of themselves.” She told him about a recent public service campaign called “Fentanyl Kills” that warned Mexicans about the drug. “He was very interested,” she said.
After the call, Trump posted on Truth Social: “I will be working on a large scale United States Advertising Campaign, explaining how bad Fentanyl is for people to use.”
Mexico didn’t have the kind of opioid crisis that occurred in the United States with the boom in OxyContin and other pain-relieving drugs produced by pharmaceutical companies. When the U.S. government cracked down on those pills, many addicts turned to illegal heroin, then fentanyl.
However, Mexico is suffering skyrocketing levels of methamphetamine use. The synthetic drug is produced by the country’s crime gangs for both the local and export markets, and a significant amount of the violence here is triggered by street-level fights over its sale.
In his tariff threat, Trump expressed alarm about the migrant caravan that had formed in southern Mexico, “composed of thousands of people, [which] seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border.”
Sheinbaum assured him that the Mexican government routinely disrupts such movements. “That caravan will never reach our northern border,” she said she told Trump. “We have a strategy to take care of them.”
Migrants often form caravans in southernmost Mexico to move through dangerous areas where they could be kidnapped. But the caravans typically only travel a few days before they are disbanded by Mexican authorities.
Sheinbaum appears to be taking a page from the playbook of her mentor, former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The leftist leader defused a threat from Trump in 2019 to impose stiff tariffs on Mexican goods by agreeing to deploy the military to deter U.S.-bound migrants.
Sheinbaum might have a few additional cards to play. Security analysts have praised her anticrime strategy as more aggressive and sophisticated than López Obrador’s. It relies on the increased use of intelligence and closer cooperation among the military, civilian law enforcement and the judicial system. The Mexican leader said she and Trump discussed increasing security cooperation, but she gave no details.
On migration, Mexico has developed a well-oiled machine to stop U.S.-bound migrants and transport them back to the southern part of the country. Migration advocates have criticized the policy, which sends migrants in circles as they try repeatedly to evade military roadblocks, as inhumane.
While Sheinbaum has apparently established a rapport with Trump, more clashes probably lie ahead.
“Never forget, you’re dealing with Donald Trump,” Guerra said. “This is never going to be over. Not for four years. But it’s not a bad start.”
Masih reported from Seoul.
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