Trump says Ukraine can win back all its land. It’s not that simple.

“The American partners know our priorities. The list is on the table. If they could provide us this list, these items we requested, I think the result will even be visible by the end of the year,” the official said.

NATO officials and diplomats have in recent months described a bleak assessment of Kyiv’s ability to retake sizable territory. While Ukraine’s massive drone industry and the recent arrangement for Kyiv to get U.S. weapons funded by the Europeans have bought its forces more time than expected on the front, a major offensive would be fraught.

Without a big shift in diplomacy or weaponry, most officials instead predict the grinding war to continue.

The sheer proliferation of drones, and recent advances in their technology, also means it will be difficult if not impossible for either side to make sudden advances — especially as winter approaches and tree cover disappears. In the meantime, Russia continues to make small local gains in several regions, even as Kyiv claws some land back in the east. The gradual movements are negligible compared to Russia’s initial advance in 2022, but still demonstrate an advantage.

The Kremlin — facing fierce Ukrainian resistance — is struggling to achieve even Putin’s revised objectives, such as seizing the entirety of four regions he already claims to have annexed. NATO estimates Russia would be unable to control all four even in the next three years at their current pace.

Some note, however, that even if Ukraine’s backers met its aspirations for cash and weapons, Ukraine faces a troop shortage that impacts the fighting — although Kyiv argues that improved resources would motivate more people to sign up.

“The hard battlefield reality is that in Donbas, over the last couple of months, the Russians made progress, square kilometer by square kilometer … and despite all the billions we give Ukraine, it has proven impossible to stop them,” said a NATO diplomat.

“We see the Russians meeting mobilization targets easier, the troop ratio is not favorable to Ukrainians,” the diplomat added. “They need to mobilize and it’s up to us to equip and train those brigades.”

Former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov said he has always believed Ukraine is capable of winning the war if partners provide the right aid at the right time.

“David and Goliath,” he said. “It’s a very famous story. Ukrainians are brave, smart and creative. We are using different techniques like sling and stone neutralizing the difference in manpower. And certainly we have the civilized world behind us.”