Russia wants to mediate in the Middle East. But it seems unprepared to help strategic ally Iran

Russia launched more than 400 drones at Ukraine in the early hours of Tuesday morning, a clear reminder of the country's ability to terrorize Ukrainian cities through the relatively cheap weapons it has been able to mass produce with the help of Iran. 

But now that Iran is being targeted by rounds of Israeli airstrikes, Moscow is willing to only go so far for a country it considers a strategic partner.

Despite the fact that the two countries signed a co-operation pact in January, experts say since 2022, Moscow has refused to send the air defence systems and fighter jets that Tehran has been pleading for. 

"There is some defence co-operation going on … but the kinds of capabilities that the Iranians really want from Russia, those that Iran would have needed to beef up their deterrence over the last year… Russia has not given," said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia nonproliferation program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Limited help for Iran

While the Kremlin has condemned the Israeli strikes and said Russia is prepared to act as a mediator in the conflict — an offer condemned by Europe and supported by U.S. President Donald Trump — experts say it's highly unlikely Moscow will wade in militarily.

Not only does it need its own weapons for the war it's waging in Ukraine, but as Kyiv increasingly targets Russian military and energy sites with longer-range drones, it needs its air defence systems.

Russia and Iran are both heavily sanctioned countries united in their criticism of the West. But analysts say Moscow is reluctant to take a position that would damage its relations with other countries in the Middle East, including Israel and Turkey, and doesn't want to see a nuclear-armed Iran.  

Notte, who studies defence co-operation between Moscow and Tehran, says Russia has sent Iran some armoured vehicles, along with electronic warfare systems that can jam radio frequencies and disrupt GPS signals. 

She says while it has also launched satellites for Iran, she has found no reliable evidence of Russia sending any of its Su-35 fighter jets to Tehran, despite rumours that have circulated online. 

Over the past year, there have been reports that Israeli strikes have taken out four S-300 air-defence systems that Iran purchased from Russia. Notte says there's been no indication Moscow moved to repair or replace them. 

"Whether that is because of Russian inability or unwillingness…. I would argue it's probably a combination of both," Notte said in a phone interview from Berlin. 

Balancing relationships

She says Russia's normally stable relations with Israel, which hasn't moved to sanction Moscow over its war with Ukraine, have become strained in recent months. 

Since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel and its military's subsequent offensive in Gaza, the Kremlin has adopted more pro-Palestinian positions, which Notte says are an opportunistic attempt to tap into "anti-Western sentiments."

"But I think [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has remained mindful of certain Israeli red lines when it comes to Russian defence co-operation with Iran, and has therefore not given certain assistance to the Iranians," she said.

She also believes Moscow doesn't need Iran like it did in 2022, when it relied on the country more heavily to help it skirt international sanctions. 

Drone production

Not only did Iran send Moscow missiles and explosive-laden drones to use in its war against Ukraine, but Tehran has  helped Russia produce the drones at a factory in Tatarstan, an area about 900 kilometres east of Moscow. 

A report produced by Washington-based C4ADS found that the Russian enterprise making the drones, Alabuga JSC, bought equipment and services from Iran and paid for them in gold bars, as well as with wire transfers processed through the United Arab Emirates.

It's estimated that with Iran's help, Russia has been able to churn out nearly 3,000 drones a month. 

"They are strategic partners. At least, they were before this escalation started," said Nikita Smagin, an independent analyst on Russia and the Middle East based in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

Smagin used to work for the Russia state media news agency TASS and was its correspondent in Iran for three years, up until 2022. 

After Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Smagin left the country and earlier this year was declared a foreign agent and accused of spreading false information against Russia. 

He believes Moscow not only wanted to keep its own weapons instead of sending them to Iran, but that the Kremlin assessed that giving Iran a bit more hardware wouldn't have made a big difference to the balance of power on the ground. 

In this sense, he thinks Moscow is being pragmatic, but says the average Iranian citizen will likely see it differently, thinking Russia "didn't help enough."

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