‘ONLY THE BEGINNING’: Europe in deep trouble as ‘hybrid war’ spreads

A Russian cargo ship has been seized.

Chinese nationals operating uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) near a significant NATO base have been arrested.

And thousands of migrants detained by Belarus are being forced to cross into European countries.

Now Denmark’s Prime Minister says a “hybrid war” has already been launched against Europe.

The 5.9 million-strong European peninsula that guards the entrance to the contested Baltic Sea has become the subject of repeated cyberattacks, drone incursions and disruption operations in recent months.

“We need to be very open about [the fact] that it probably is only the beginning,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told media.

“The idea of a hybrid war is to threaten us, to divide us, to destabilise us. To use drones one day, cyber attacks the next day, sabotage on the third day.”

Latvia’s defence minister agrees: “(We’re) not formally at war, but we are not at peace, we are in hybrid warfare,” Andris Sprūds warned earlier in the week. “This is a reality, what we have to face, what we have to address, what we have to be ready for: sabotage incidents, misinformation, the weaponisation of illegal immigration, cyber attacks.”

Such harassment is escalating. And broadening.

Undersea internet and power cables are being cut. Cyber attacks are disrupting key infrastructure and services. And arson attacks have targeted components of the supply network assisting Ukraine in resisting Moscow’s invasion.

Leaders from across Europe this week met in a series of summits focused on resisting these attacks while increasing support for Kyiv’s struggle for survival.

But the active threat comes from within its own borders.

The September 22 drone swarm over Copenhagen airport is far from being the only incident. At least ten European countries have accused Russia of probing their airspace in recent weeks.

“These have become a daily occurrence,” notes Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) analyst Fuad Shahbazov.

“Russia has not been blamed for all the incursions, but that is the point of shadow warfare. The targets understand who is behind it, but cannot immediately show the evidence. Meanwhile, the disruption is enormous, the victim looks impotent, and trust in government can be damaged.”

Provocations just short of war

“We need all Europeans to understand what is at stake and what’s going on. When there are drones or cyber attacks, the idea is to divide us,” Prime Minister Frederiksen warned.

French commandos arrested two sailors aboard the Russian “shadow” tanker Borocay earlier this week. The sanction-evading ship is suspected of launching drones.

German special forces raided the Russian cargo vessel Scanlark in September. They found evidence it was involved in drone harassment operations against the German navy.

Polish authorities have arrested a suspected Russian GRU (Intelligence Directorate) spy for burying explosives in cemeteries around Warsaw.

Two Chinese nationals were detained this week for flying a drone over Bardufoss Airport, which also serves as Norway’s most important military air base.

Three of Russia’s fastest MiG-31 interceptor aircraft breached Estonian territorial airspace over the Baltic Sea on September 19. This triggered NATO treaty clause Article 4, assembling a crisis response team for only the eighth time in its history.

“The Kremlin is confident this combination of intimidation and hybrid operations will build a secure buffer zone near its borders and maintain its enormous influence in the post-Soviet region. It is not yet clear that NATO is capable of conjuring a decisive response,” Shahbazov warns.

But momentum is growing.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sent a Ukrainian anti-drone unit to Denmark “for exercises”.

“The recent drone incidents across Europe are a clear sign that Russia still feels bold enough to escalate this war,” Zelensky said. “It was never just about Ukraine; Russia has always aimed to break the West and Europe.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has added his voice to the rising chorus of alarm: “We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.”

He was among almost 50 European leaders who met in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Thursday to discuss how to ramp up their defences.

The sense of urgency is real.

The NATO states are keenly aware of US President Donald Trump’s antipathy towards Europe and the alliance. And of his willingness to excuse Moscow’s provocations.

At the top of the agenda was the creation, financing and operation of a “drone wall” along Europe’s 2,250 km of borders with Russia. It also sought to release $250 billion worth of seized Russian cash to support Ukraine’s war effort.

That has the Kremlin’s oligarchs fuming.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian media he is “closely monitoring the rising militarisation of Europe” while dismissing the threat his invasions of Ukraine and Georgia represent.

Instead, he accuses the European Union of stoking “hysteria”.

“Just calm down,” he said.

ISIS-inspired tactics

“Russia is now grooming socially marginalised individuals — often Russian-speaking men with prior convictions — to conduct sabotage, arson, and other attacks on European soil,” states a report from the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT).

“This … is not a terrorist organisation but a state actor driving recruitment and operations.”

The Kremlin is also seeking to exploit Europe’s refugee crisis.

Thousands of migrants are being pushed into Latvian, Lithuanian and Polish border crossings. Many have Russian visas.

Meanwhile, the joint ICCT study, compiled in conjunction with the Slovakian Globsec think-tank, reports that more than 600 Russian operatives have been expelled from Europe since 2018.

“Deprived of its intelligence officers under diplomatic cover, Moscow pivoted to Europe’s underworld, outsourcing sabotage to ‘single-use’ civilian agents,” it claims.

Some 110 attacks in Europe since 2022 have been traced back to the Kremlin. Most took place in Poland and France. And 131 suspects have been arrested.

“Recruitment often occurred online via platforms such as Telegram, but also through kinship and friendship ties, creating small, resilient networks that acted locally yet sometimes crossed borders to obscure attribution,” the study states. “Financial incentives were decisive: payments ranged from a few euros for graffiti to substantial sums for attempted attacks on critical infrastructure.”

As Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine grinds on, it’s suffering increasing trouble on home soil. Targeted attacks from Kyiv have severely affected refinery production and national fuel supplies.

“Russia’s kinetic campaign — bombings, arson, assassination plots — should be seen as both punishment for Europe’s support to Ukraine and preparation for potential wider conflict,” the ICCT report argues.

But international sanctions have been largely undermined by support from India, North Korea, China and Iran. Not to mention the willingness of even European nations to accept oil deliveries from Moscow’s “shadow” tanker fleet.

“Although some argue the stagnating Russian economy limits its combat capabilities, there is no sign of any immediate reduction in the Kremlin’s combat power,” argues Shahbazov.