Russia dares NATO to shoot

Weeks of Russian incursions into NATO skies have pushed the U.S.-led alliance to the brink of an explosive choice: strike back or stand down.

Why it matters: With peace talks frozen and nuclear threats flying, NATO and Russia are closer to a direct military confrontation than at any point since the Cold War.

• President Trump, long reluctant to confront Moscow, stunned allies this week by saying he supports shooting down Russian aircraft if the incursions continue.
• The Kremlin's response was a blunt one: shoot down a Russian jet, and war will follow.

The big picture: NATO officials believe Russia is deliberately testing the alliance's defenses — and its political will — with a wave of escalating provocations.

• Sept. 9-10: Nearly two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace, forcing NATO to scramble fighter jets and engage enemy targets in allied airspace for the first time in its history.
• Sept. 13: A Russian drone lingered nearly an hour over Romanian territory.
• Sept. 19: Three Russian fighter jets flew 12 minutes into Estonian airspace with their transponders off — the most brazen violation yet.

On Thursday, U.S. fighter jets intercepted Russian warplanes near Alaska's air defense identification zone for the ninth time this year.

• Norway reported three separate Russian airspace violations this year — the first incursions in over a decade.
• Drone swarms forced multiple airports in Denmark to shut down this week. While the culprit has not yet been named, Denmark's prime minister declared that a "hybrid attack" was underway on European soil.

Zoom in: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told "The Axios Show" on Wednesday night that the "very" weak NATO response had encouraged Putin to probe further.

• "They have to shoot down everything," Zelensky said, concurring with Trump. "If the jets are in your space, you have to block it."
• Zelensky said that not all NATO leaders were afraid to take such action, but most are. The reason, he said, is they think "Russia is crazy" — and "they are right."

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