Iran

How Iran Defied the U.S. to Become an International Power

Author: Editors Desk, Sune Engel Rasmussen and Laurence Norman Source: WSJ:

June 30, 2024 at 06:43

Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian at a polling station Friday, flashing a victory sign. STRINGER/SHUTTERSTOCK

Despite decades of Western pressure, Tehran poses a greater threat to U.S. interests thanks to its ties to Russia and China

The winner of Iran’s presidential election will inherit domestic discord and an economy battered by sanctions, but also a strength: Tehran has more sway on the international stage than in decades.

Iran, under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s leadership, thwarted decades of U.S. pressureand emerged from years of isolation largely by aligning itself with Russia and China, giving up on integration with the West and throwing in its lot with two major powers just as they amped up confrontation with Washington. Iran’s economy remains battered by U.S. sanctions, but oil sales to China and weapons deals with Russia have offered financial and diplomatic lifelines.

It also effectively exploited decades of U.S. mistakes in the Middle East and big swings in White House policy toward the region between one administration and the next.

Today, Tehran poses a greater threat to American allies and interests in the Middle East than at any point since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.

Iran’s military footprint reaches wider and deeper than ever. Iranian-backed armed groups have hit Saudi oil facilities with missiles and paralyzed global shipping in the Red Sea. They have dominated politics in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, and launched the most devastating strike on Israel in decades, when Hamas attacked in October. Iran launched its first direct military attack from its soil on Israel in April. It has also orchestrated attacks on opponents in Europe and beyond, Western officials say.

The consequences—drones for Russia in Ukraine, the threat from Iran-backed militias, Tehran’s recent expansion of its nuclear program—will remain pressing issues regardless of who wins the second round of the Iranian election on July 5 or the U.S. election in November.

“In many respects, Iran is stronger, more influential, more dangerous, more threatening than it was 45 years ago,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign-policy program at the Brookings Institution, who advised Democratic and Republican administrations on Iran policy.