Carney vows to govern for all Canadians after winning election upended by Trump

Mark Carney achieved what seemed like an impossible feat just a few months ago, leading the Liberals to another victory after an election that was shaped by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and threats of annexation. 

The CBC Decision Desk is projecting a fourth Liberal term — a rarity in Canadian politics — but it's too close to tell whether it will be majority or minority government. 

Carney, a central banker who only jumped into Canadian politics in January, successfully reversed his party's fortunes after polling earlier this year suggested defeat was all but guaranteed. But the race against the Conservatives is shaping up to be closer than many polls predicted.

The Liberal share of the vote hovers just above 43 per cent and, as of 3 a.m. ET, are leading or projected elected in about 167 seats, short of the 172 needed to form a majority government. 

The Conservative vote share stands at about 42 per cent, which is an extremely strong showing for the party but did not translate into the most seats

While some ridings are too close to call still, results suggest Bloc Québécois and NDP support faltered. If the results hold, New Democrats will lose both party status and its leader's seat in one night.

A minority government would be short of the "strong mandate" Carney campaigned for and would mean his party will  need the support of one of the opposition parties to pass legislation and stave off an another election in the near future.

Still, a minority government would have felt miraculous at the end of last year. Canadians had soured on former prime minister Justin Trudeau and polls suggested Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would snap up the majority government he'd long been waiting for.

Then came Trudeau's early January resignation, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and persistent barbs about making Canada the 51st state — flipping the political script.

With Trump announcing, pausing, then re-announcing devastating tariffs on Canadian goods, the campaign largely became a race about who is best to steer Canada through global uncertainty.

Carney focused campaign on Trump

Carney tried to define himself as a steady, mature outsider who is best to deal with the unpredictable president and map out a new economic and security relationship. Heading into the campaign, Carney did not have a seat in the House of Commons. That changed Monday as CBC News projects he's won the Ottawa riding of Nepean.

While criss-crossing the country, the freshly minted leader pointed to his time as the governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 global financial crisis and head of the Bank of England during the Brexit years as evidence that Canadians should trust him to steer the country's economy through turbulent times. 

Speaking from the election headquarters in downtown Ottawa, Carney opened his speech saying he has lots to be humble about.

"Humility underscores the importance of governing as a team in cabinet and in caucus and working constructively with all parties across Parliament," he said. 

He then spoke to those who didn't vote for him, saying he intends to govern for all Canadians "no matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted.

"Millions of our fellow citizens preferred a different outcome," he said from a hockey arena.

"Let's put an end to the division and anger of the past. We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone."

Carney then congratulated his political rivals for "all the work they did and their service to Canada, now and in the future."

While the political dust still has to settle on the overall results, Carney already has his eye on one of the next major hurdles: negotiating with the president.

"When I sit down with President Trump, it will be to discuss the future economy and security relationship between two sovereign nations," he said.

"It will be our full knowledge that we have many, many other options to build prosperity for all Canadians." 

During his victory speech he reiterated his promise to make the Canadian economy less dependent on the U.S. and to reduce barriers to interprovincial trade by Canada Day.

He ended the night dancing in a red hoodie with supporters to the band Down With Webster, a staple of his campaign rallies.

Poilievre's seat in peril

The mood at the Conservative headquarters, just blocks away from where Liberals gathered, was understandably more subdued.

"Change did not get over the finish line tonight," Poilievre told the crowd just after 1 a.m. ET. 

He congratulated Carney, and said the Conservatives will "do our job to hold the government to account."

Poilievre, who has lead the Conservatives since 2022 and has very much shaped the party, added that they will learn lessons from this election for "an even better result" next time.

His own seat in Ottawa's Carleton riding is still in play, and the Conservative leader is, as of 3 a.m., trailing behind his Liberal challenger in the riding he's held since 2004.

But Poilievre said he intends to stay on as leader. 

"It will be an honour to continue to fight for you," he said.

During the race, Poilievre faced criticism that he was too slow to pivot from the ballot box questions he wanted to campaign on — the carbon tax, affordability and Trudeau's unpopularity — to Trump's trade war and revived Canadian patriotism. 

He defended his approach, arguing Canadians share his concerns about the housing crisis and illegal drugs. 

Singh resigns as leader of a decimated party

The night was devastating for the NDP, with results suggesting a near-total collapse. New Democrats are leading or projected elected in just seven ridings, short of the 12 needed for official party status. 

Jagmeet Singh, fronting his third campaign as leader, acknowledged defeat in his concession speech where he also announced he'll step down.

"Obviously I know this night is a disappointing night for New Democrats," he said, repeatedly tearing up after failing to win his seat of Burnaby Central.

"We had really good candidates that lost tonight. I know how hard you worked. I spent time with you. You're amazing. I am so sorry you are not going to be able to represent your communities." 

At the tailend of the campaign he stood by his decision to not trigger a federal election sooner, even after ripping up the supply-and-confidence agreement he had signed with the Trudeau Liberals. 

"I could not stomach the idea of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives forming a majority government," Singh said.

"I knew that it was going to be bad because of their cuts, because of the division, because of the things they wanted."

Singh had been quick to point out his deal with Trudeau pushed the Liberals to bring in pharmacare and a dental care programs, policies that New Democrats sought for years.

Bloc loses ground in Quebec 

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, who is projected to be re-elected in Beloeil-Chambly, has also been working to hold the balance of power in the House. The separatist party only runs candidates in Quebec and its mandate has long been to act as a voice for Quebecers in Ottawa.

Even though the party is projected to lose a chunk of its seats, it could play an important role if the Liberals preside over a minority government.

In his address to supporters, Blanchet underscored that Canada would have to answer to Quebec and ensure its interests are respected.

"You have overcome a challenge that would have literally overwhelmed people of lesser character than yours," Blanchet told the crowd in French.

"This will once again be an example of what distinguishes Quebec and what makes it a great nation that is unique and whose voice will be heard around the world."

The night was also disappointing to the Greens, which saw Kitchener Centre incumbent Mike Morrice lose. Co-Leader Elizabeth May will hold onto her Saanich-Gulf Islands riding, CBC News projects. The other co-leader, Jonathan Pedneault, was hoping to win a seat but is currently in fifth place in the Montreal riding of Outremont.