The designation, which came into effect on Thursday, marks a shift in how the threat from certain organised crime groups is perceived by US agencies and augurs a greater role for the CIA and the US military.
Trump’s pick for the new US ambassador in the Mexico, Ron Johnson, served as ambassador in El Salvador from 2019 to 2021 and before that spent decades in the CIA and the US army, including as a Green Beret, the elite army unit that conducts covert operations abroad.
However, it is still unclear just what effect the designation will have. US agencies already have an array of tools at their disposal to go after transnational organised crime groups by restricting their members’ abilities to travel or do business.
The main difference will be the range of people that can be targeted, which will widen to include anyone who provides “material support” to the cartels.
Material support could mean anything between logistical support and financial services, training and lodging, guns and false documents. But exactly how that is interpreted will depend on political will.
While the designation of cartels as FTOs itself will not authorise US military action in Mexico, some fear it is a first step towards it. Trump has already suggested bombing drug labs, and has reportedly discussed sending special forces to kill cartel leaders.
Since Trump returned to power, the US military has increased its airborne surveillance of the cartels along the US-Mexico border, while the CIA has stepped up drone flights over Mexico to hunt for fentanyl labs – though Sheinbaum said that this was with Mexico’s permission.
Earlier this month, Trump delayed his threatened 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico after Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 more soldiers to the border to reduce fentanyl trafficking and migration.
It is unclear how those soldiers will reduce the flow of fentanyl, given that it is so potent that only relatively small volumes are moved, and that the great majority is trafficked through ports of entry by US citizens.
Nonetheless, Sheinbaum said that Trump in return agreed to help reduce arms trafficking. Hundreds of thousands of guns sold in the US each year end up in the hands of Mexican groups now designated as terrorist organisations.
Sheinbaum has said that Mexico could expand its ongoing lawsuit against US gunmakers to include alleged complicity with terror groups.
