Trump holds all the cards in New York’s mayoral contest

The Republican has already exerted authority over New York City Hall: Incumbent Democrat Eric Adams’ federal corruption charges were dropped this year after he cozied up to the White House — a move that deepened his unpopularity and forced him from the race.

“Trump is in a good position no matter what happens on Nov. 4,” said Rev. Ruben Diaz, a former state and city lawmaker and ally of Trump. “Whoever wins has to deal with Trump and none of them would be able to beat Trump. Any one of them will have a losing battle against Trump. He is an 800-pound gorilla.”

The deeper significance of the race is hard to miss. With the midterms less than a year away, a Mamdani win would hand Trump a vivid example of left-wing governance to point to — a test case for his warnings about what happens when progressives run major cities. Every policy move the democratic socialist makes could become campaign fuel for Republicans and a political headache for Democrats nationwide.

Whoever wins, the city’s next mayor will inherit a deep affordability crisis, with people squeezed by soaring rents, grocery prices and child care costs. Yet City Hall’s attention next year will likely be consumed by Trump’s drive to impose his will on New York — from expanding immigration enforcement to freezing billions of dollars in infrastructure funding or even deploying federal troops on city streets.

Trump’s impulse to put New York under his thumb is colliding with Democratic voters’ desires to battle the president and halt his agenda as a federal government shutdown stretches to nearly a month. The rookie mayor will have to balance the city’s needs with the political imperative of fighting the president.

The dynamic with Trump — and whether a relationship can be forged along the lines of his direct communication with Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul — will define the first term for whomever wins the election. The race has become a microcosm for a rudderless Democratic Party — a battle between the moderate Cuomo and the left-leaning Mamdani.

Trump has taken an outsized interest in the contest to lead his native city, where his family retains significant business interests, often commenting on it while belittling Mamdani and longshot Republican nominee, Curtis Sliwa.

Cuomo, the former governor who resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal and denied any wrongdoing, has insisted he’s best suited to take on Trump, whom he has known for decades. (Trump made a video appearance at Cuomo’s 1990 bachelor party.) They tangled over Covid policy and federal funding for the Gateway rail tunnel. Cuomo has talked up their shared Queens roots, and both men have a reputation for being deeply transactional in negotiations.

The former governor was previously targeted by the Trump administration during the president’s first term. Those investigations — including a pandemic-related probe — never amounted to charges. A Department of Justice inspector general later determined the Covid investigation was politically motivated.

“Nobody fought Trump the way I did,” Cuomo said Monday. “Then, nobody had the consequences I had for fighting him. I was investigated by the Justice Department for years because I stood up to Trump.”

Cuomo has also ratcheted up his rhetoric, suggesting in a NY1 debate last week he would have the NYPD intervene in actions by the Immigration Customs Enforcement agency — a move that stands to spark a confrontation with federal authorities.

The former governor believes the inexperienced Mamdani is too much of a lightweight to go up against Trump, asserting the president would run through him “like a hot knife through butter.”

Cuomo, who lost the June Democratic primary to Mamdani, will have pressure points for Trump to exploit too, though.

House Republicans last year accused the ex-governor of lying when testifying to a panel probing his administration’s Covid-era policies and actions. A criminal referral was made earlier this year to the Department of Justice by GOP lawmakers. Cuomo has denied any wrongdoing and has insisted the perjury claims are politically driven by ax-grinding Republicans.

The peril, though, is clear. Trump’s Department of Justice has shown a desire to pursue cases against political enemies, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, who pleaded not guilty to mortgage fraud charges.

“Mr. Trump’s model seems pretty clear,” said Democratic state Sen. Liz Krueger, who chairs the powerful Senate Finance Committee. “You’re in legal trouble, either you go to jail for it, you do something for him, maybe he lets you out, maybe he drops the charges. That’s much more disturbing to me as a citizen of New York — that Andrew Cuomo still could become mayor and then be directed or ordered around by Donald Trump.”

Cuomo is making a concerted effort in the final days of the race to woo Republican voters — including those New Yorkers who, in an otherwise Democrat-dominated city, backed Trump. The president, though, has all but acknowledged Cuomo is unlikely to win the race given Mamdani’s double-digit polling advantage. Indeed, Trump has turned much of his public opprobrium on the frontrunning democratic socialist.

The president has called Mamdani a “liddle communist” and has warned aid to the city will be slashed in the event Mamdani wins, arguing he does not want the Queens Democrat to misuse the cash. Trump’s allies in Congress, like Rep. Andy Ogles, have discussed deporting the Ugandan-born Democratic nominee, who is a naturalized U.S. citizen.

Mamdani, like Democrats around the country, has vowed to fight Trump on all fronts. He also extended an olive branch, of sorts, when appearing on Fox News this month by citing their shared desire to address the cost of living. Both Mamdani and Trump command a fiercely loyal base of support — a bulwark as each pursue political agendas running in opposite directions.

As Democrats weigh how best to engage the mercurial president, Mamdani will likely be eager to mix it up with him.

“The president has been pretty effective in nationalizing his battles with the Chicago mayor and the California governor when there are policy disagreements,” said Republican former City Councilmember Joe Borelli. “The difference with Mamdani is he’s going to be a willing dance partner. He wants to be a voice for the socialist movement and not parochial issues.”

Sliwa, the longshot Republican nominee, has the most complex relationship with the president — a shared history that dates back to their time as tabloid stars in the 1980s. Trump has derided the two-time GOP mayoral nominee as not ready for prime time and mocked him for living in an apartment with numerous cats. Trump has pointedly not endorsed his party’s standard bearer.

Yet Sliwa, who must carry Trump’s small but vocal MAGA base in Republican strongholds like Staten Island, has struck a conciliatory note when discussing the president. The Guardian Angels founder knocked Cuomo and Mamdani in a recent debate for vowing to mix it up with Trump, arguing it does no good to battle a determined federal administration.

Sliwa in the final debate said it’s best to negotiate and “show respect” to the president. In an interview, the Republican nominee said that, despite his “a love-hate relationship” with Trump, New York City’s next mayor must tread carefully.

“He has all the cards,” Sliwa said. “He has New York by the short hairs. You don’t have to buckle or bow to Donald Trump. But you have to acknowledge that he’s in charge. There’s no problem respecting him.”