Middle East

Why Lebanon Cease-Fire Threatens Chance of Middle East Stability

Author: Dov Lieber Source: WSJ:

November 28, 2024 at 11:00

e in Israel are pressing for an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities now Tehran is at a disadvantage

An Israeli soldier close to the Israel-Lebanon border. Photo: Stoyan Nenov/Reuters

TEL AVIV—The cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah brokered this week pulls the Middle East back from the brink of all-out war. But the deal also carries the risk of putting Israel and Iran closer to a more dangerous direct confrontation.

For more than a year, Iran’s cast of allied militias, in which Hezbollah is the central member, has attacked Israel from across the Middle East—the first unified effort by Tehran’s so-called axis of resistance to confront Israel.

Now, degraded and damaged by a year of war with Israel, that unity is showing the first signs of cracking, leaving Iran exposed.

Hezbollah accepted a cease-fire with Israel without extracting concessions for Hamas, its Iran-backed ally in Gaza. The Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq, though still united in their hatred of Israel and the U.S., have lowered the tempo of attacks in recent weeks.

Some in Israel see the weakening of Iran and its militias as a moment to exploit, in particular by targeting Tehran’s nuclear program. Others warn doing so would move the region onto more unstable footing.