Syria’s Rebels Struck When Assad’s Allies Were Weakened and Distracted

Since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has increasingly carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah, which began hitting it with rockets in support of Hamas, and Iranian fighters and infrastructure inside Syria. Hezbollah and Iranian forces either went into hiding or withdrew from Syria to fight elsewhere, said Haid Haid, a senior consulting associate fellow at Chatham House, a London-based research institute.

Russia has played perhaps the most crucial role in aiding Mr. al-Assad. Though it is still assisting his government with some airstrikes, it is entrenched in its own war in Ukraine and has pulled much of its military focus away from Syria.

Even with Hezbollah and Iran by its side since the early days of the civil war, the Syrian government still lost its grip on large swaths of territory until Russia directly intervened in 2015. Alongside Syrian warplanes and military helicopters, Russian airstrikes helped turn the tide of the war in Mr. al-Assad’s favor.

Syria’s military historically struggled at urban warfare, but during the intense years of the civil war, its own air power and Russia’s allowed Mr. al-Assad to bomb the opposition into submission.

This time, though, “the regime was so much weaker then anyone thought and Russia was almost nowhere to be seen,” said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.

“One of the things that may have pushed them to start when they did was fear that Hezbollah might resend its fighters that withdrew from those front lines,” Mr. Haid said.

But conditions on the ground in Syria also created the crucial conditions for a successful rebel offensive.

Even with his allies embroiled in other conflicts, Mr. al-Assad seemed confident that his own front lines were not at risk. His government had withdrawn some of its forces there, while soldiers continued to staff checkpoints in government-held territory — often shaking Syrians down for bribes, according to multiple analysts.

Mr. al-Assad has also failed to produce any economic improvement, which many Syrians had expected once the government recaptured large parts of the country in recent years. He also failed to unify the country or regain support from a population alienated by years of civil war and the unrelenting violence and terror carried out by the government.

The government also continued to forcibly conscript young men into the military — soldiers who, when faced with a rapidly advancing and organized rebel offensive last week, chose to flee rather than fight.

 

 

Leaders of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opposition group say they were watching the geopolitical shifts around them — especially the weakening of the axis of resistance by Israel, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and assessing how they could exploit these changes, Ms. Khalifa said.

“At the same time,” she said, “they have been building up their military capability over the last year and have been signaling this military offensive over the last two months.”

There were other factors for the rebels to consider as well.

Until recently, Turkey, which backs some of the rebel factions involved in the offensive but has a more complicated relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was opposed to an offensive against the Syrian government, Ms. Khalifa said.

Turkey also hosts more Syrian refugees than any other country — over three million, according to government figures — and officials have long worried that any new violence near their southern border could set off a new wave of refugees.

But last week’s offensive signals that Turkish officials may have changed their position, Ms. Khalifa said.

“All of these things combined made it an opportune time,” she said.

Muhammad Haj Kadour, Valerie Hopkins and Ben Hubbard contributed reporting.

Raja Abdulrahim reports on the Middle East and is based in Jerusalem. More about Raja Abdulrahim