Setbacks for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Turn Into a Catastrophe for Syria’s Assad

“It’s a tectonic shift,” said Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as Syria director in the Trump White House. “Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.”

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Iranian ayatollahs’ regime are all currently embroiled in conflicts that threaten their very survival, and in which Syria is a sideshow at best. To a varying degree, all three have sustained strategic blows—while the Syrian rebels’ main backer, Turkey, has taken advantage of the turmoil.

“Russia is weakened, Iran is weakened, Hezbollah is beaten—and all this has created an enormous opportunity for Turkey, which it was quick to grab,” said Asli Aydintaşbaş, a Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.

At the very least, the latest developments will stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, a significant political problem there. Depending on how fighting develops in the coming weeks and months, the fall of Aleppo could also give Ankara a dominant role in Syria’s future—not necessarily a prospect that Israel would relish.

Syria’s President Bashar al Assad tried his best to keep a low profile ever since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas turned into a regional war between Israel, Iran and Iranian proxies. Yet, that maneuvering—including a recent rapprochement with Gulf monarchies that once funded the rebels—didn’t prevent Assad’s regime from getting embroiled in the maelstrom that is reshaping the Middle East.

Hailed as a miracle in videos posted from Aleppo’s ancient citadel, the city’s fall on Friday night exceeded the Islamist-led rebels’ wildest expectations. Now, after the regime’s army collapsed or fled, other offensives are under way. Fighting in coming days will show whether the Syrian military will be able to regroup and counterattack—or will continue a chaotic retreat from other major population centers.

Read More (...)