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1 year oldTrump-Putin relations enter a new chapter and the world is at stake
Putin wants a sit-down with Trump as equals in which they divide the world into spheres of influence.
Two self-proclaimed geopolitical alpha male leaders will be squaring off next year.
In one corner will be President Donald Trump, hungry for a Ukraine peace deal that would make him look like a global peacemaker. In the other, Russian President Vladimir Putin, an astute, manipulative and vehemently anti-American autocrat who hopes to entice Trump into creating a transactional new world order without rules or human rights.
Putin is seeking a grand bargain on European security that would leave Ukraine at the Kremlin’s mercy, weaken NATO and cement Russia’s place as a global power.
Ahead of any talks, the Kremlin is carefully assessing Trump’s messaging, ambitions and vulnerabilities, while remaining wary of his unpredictability. Trump’s weaknesses, according to Russian analysts, include geopolitical naivety, a short attention span and a propensity to rely on gut not brain.
“Trump deliberately keeps silent, I think, because he doesn’t know,” said Konstantin Remchukov, editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “We saw his campaign. He’s not a profound thinker on geopolitical stuff.”
The biggest issue between the two men will be the conflict in Ukraine, which Trump has promised to end in 24 hours.
But Putin has set strict conditions for any deal, including keeping Ukraine permanently out of NATO, significantly reducing its military and hanging on to Ukrainian territory. Analysts see little hope for a peace deal, given Putin’s maximalist position and Trump’s wariness of looking weak if he gives too much to Russia.
Trump, “like any world leader, wants to negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn’t want to be seen as weak and he doesn’t want to be seen as kowtowing to Putin,” said Joshua Huminski, senior vice president at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.