Erdogan arrests the candidate who could beat him

“Hundreds of police officers are in front of our doors,” Ekrem Imamoglu said in a video message to his supporters on March 19th, speaking into his smartphone. “We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged.” The mayor of Istanbul, and the Turkish opposition’s expected candidate in the next presidential elections, was about to leave his apartment. Moments later he was arrested. His party is calling it an attempted putsch by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Arrest warrants were issued the same day for 105 others, including some of Mr Imamoglu’s advisers, municipal officials from his Republican People’s Party (chp) and a top journalist. As news spread, roads to the police station where Mr Imamoglu had been taken were blocked. The authorities also restricted access to social-media platforms and closed metro stations. In the name of safeguarding “public order”, Istanbul’s governor announced a ban on public gatherings for four days. Thousands of protesters defied the order the same evening by turning up at a rally in front of the mayor’s office.

Turkish prosecutors seem to be following an old Soviet formula with Mr Imamoglu: “Show me the man and I will find you the crime.” Over the past three years he has faced a slew of investigations and indictments, on charges ranging from corruption to insulting election officials who tried to strip him of victory in the 2019 mayoral contest. The charges now levelled against him include leading a crime organisation, abetting a terrorist group, bribery and rigging tenders for government work.

The timing of Mr Imamoglu’s arrest seems no coincidence, either. At a party primary scheduled for March 23rd, the chp was expected to nominate him as its presidential candidate in the elections set for 2028 but widely expected to take place earlier. Mr Imamoglu helped lead the opposition to a shocking victory in last year’s local elections, handing Mr Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development (ak) party their first defeat in over two decades. He has since enjoyed a comfortable lead over Turkey’s leader in the polls.

The government seemingly wanted to leave nothing to chance. A day before he was detained, the authorities had revoked Mr Imamoglu’s university diploma. Candidates for the presidency in Turkey are required by law to be university graduates.

Mr Erdogan’s officials sounded appalled by the notion that Turkey’s leader was weaponising the courts. “To associate judicial investigations and cases with our president is audacious and irresponsible, to say the least,” the country’s justice minister, Yilmaz Tunc, announced shortly after the mayor’s arrest. “The judiciary does not take orders from anyone.”

Many Turks expected Mr Imamoglu to face more court cases, but few thought he would be packed off to jail. “Even by Erdogan’s standards, this is a huge step,” says Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute, an American think-tank. Mr Erdogan may think Donald Trump’s presidency gives him impunity. “Trump has created such chaos,” says Ms Tol, “that foreign autocrats [sense] they can do whatever they want.”

The outlook for Turkey’s already hobbled democracy appears grim. Mansur Yavas, the opposition mayor of Ankara, also seen as a possible contender for the presidency, suggested he could meet the same fate as Mr Imamoglu. “Turkey is evolving towards a model where political competition is practically impossible,” says Ibrahim Uslu, an analyst.

The Istanbul mayor’s arrest is the biggest of its kind, but it is not the first and will probably not be the last. The past couple of months have seen detentions of a number of opposition mayors, Kurdish and human-rights activists and various journalists. When two senior members of Turkey’s top business association came out against the crackdown, they too were called in for questioning. They now face up to five years in prison.

By going after his biggest rival, Mr Erdogan may be out to destroy the alliance between the chp and Turkey’s main Kurdish party, the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, or dem. Mr Imamoglu’s arrest puts dem, which has seen scores of its own politicians jailed in the past decade, in a tough spot. The party expects Mr Erdogan to respond to a ceasefire call made by Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of an armed Kurdish group, with concessions to the country’s Kurdish minority.

Turkey’s strongman may now make dem an offer it cannot refuse, namely to keep quiet or see the peace process go up in flames. “dem has a lot to lose while talks with Ocalan are ongoing,” says Sinem Adar of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, “so its reaction is bound to be limited.”

The markets, one of the few checks on Mr Erdogan’s power, were less restrained. The Turkish lira, which had regained its footing over the past couple of years thanks to austerity and interest-rate hikes, plunged by more than 12% against the dollar within hours of Mr Imamoglu’s arrest, before paring its losses. Turkey’s central bank reportedly burned through $10bn in foreign reserves to prop up the currency. The main stock index fell by 8.7% on the day, triggering breaks in trading.

In a gesture of defiance, the chp announced it would go ahead with its primary on March 23rd. It invited all Turks—not just party members—to take part and elect Mr Imamoglu as its candidate. “What we are facing,” Ozgur Ozel, the chp’s leader, told protesters, “is a coup attempt.” 

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