Eastern European countries scramble after China gives Russia ‘permission’ to invade

“Ex-Soviet Union countries” don’t exist, a prominent Chinese ambassador has declared. It could be tacit approval for President Vladimir Putin’s plans to re-establish Russia’s lost empire.

On Saturday, the Chinese envoy to France, Ambassador Lu Shaye, denied that nations that fled the Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991 are free and independent sovereign states. 

“There is no international agreement to realise their status as a sovereign nation,” he told a French news network.

Now Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are demanding answers from Beijing as they struggle against escalating espionage attacks from Moscow. 

They’re just three of 15 states formally annexed under dictator Joseph Stalin as “union republics” of the Soviet Bloc.

Already nervous after decades of Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing his desire to bring the Eastern European nations back under Moscow’s control, the tiny nations are now demanding Beijing clarify its formal position on their sovereignty.

The answer will directly impact their future, and world peace.
 

“As a declining Eurasian empire, Russia is intent on revising the post-Cold War settlement by regathering the Eastern Slavic core of the former Soviet Union — recalling Putin’s statements that there is no such thing as the Ukrainian nation — and then re-establishing a sphere of influence in Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia,” says Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) analyst Chels Michta.

“For this, he needs China’s backing and, increasingly, consent, as it increases its economic investment and influence in Central Asia.”

Gaslighting peace

Chairman Xi Jinping declared he wanted to be a “peacemaker”, outlining a 12-point peace plan before personally visiting President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month. 

He is yet to accept an invitation for a phone call with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the “show of friendship in Moscow” speaks “a thousand words about this new vision for an international order.”

 

Some EU officials now often throw out a bunch of turd-like stinky things on the China issue. They will eventually eat those things themselves. pic.twitter.com/49vUVKdKCl

— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) April 23, 2023

 

Xi’s diplomats have been pushing the Kremlin’s line that the 2023 invasion was in response to “provocations” from Kyiv, and Ukraine wasn’t an actual sovereign state anyway.

Now that argument is being applied to other former Soviet Union states.

Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna declared Ambassador Lu’s assertion “false and a misinterpretation of history”. His Lithuanian counterpart, foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, tweeted that Lu’s words were “why the Baltic states don’t trust China to broker peace in Ukraine”. And Latvia’s foreign minister on Sunday tweeted that he found Lu’s statements to be “unacceptable”.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia has summoned the authorised charge d’affaires of the Chinese Embassy in Riga to provide explanations on Monday,” Edgars Rinkēvičs added. “This step is coordinated with Lithuania and Estonia.”

But the ambassador’s words may be a sign of things to come.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin (has) questioned the existence of Ukraine, describing it as a mere creation of Lenin’s Soviet Union,” says European Council on Foreign Relations director Marie Dumoulin. 

“But this logic could also be applied to other post-Soviet republics – all of which, including Russia, were established in their current form by Soviet leaders.”

Now that argument is being applied to other former Soviet Union states.

European disunity

Chairman Xi reacted to recent criticism regarding Hong Kong and the Uighur ethnic minority by declaring, “Europeans should focus on their own problems, such as antisemitism and systematic racial discrimination.”

French President Emmanuel Macron has since sought to strengthen economic ties and urged China to act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine for peace talks by visiting Beijing.

But he was keen to avoid issues relating to sovereignty.

 

Some strategist in Europe is making sense:

Jan Willem Blankert, who has worked for 20 years as a diplomat for the EU foreign service, believed that if Europe really wants peace, they should follow Macron's advice: stop acting as a US vassal, and keep its one-China policy. pic.twitter.com/jNmzbTLXbj

— Li Jingjing 李菁菁 (@Jingjing_Li) April 22, 2023

 

Macron declared Taiwan a “crisis that is not ours”, insisting Europe should keep out of the dispute and not be “America’s followers.”

And Spanish President Pedro Sánchez Pérez-Castejón praised Chairman Xi during a visit earlier this month for his “strong, transparent, and rules-based multilateral system”.

But France’s foreign ministry now says it has reacted with “dismay” and “consternation” at the Chinese ambassador’s comments.

“It remains for China to confirm whether these comments reflect its position, which we hope is not the case,” the ministry said. It reaffirmed its “full solidarity with all our allies and partners in question, who have obtained their long-awaited independence after decades of oppression.”

Last night, the European Union’s foreign policy spokesman Josep Borrell called Ambassador Lu’s words “unacceptable”.

“The EU can only suppose these declarations do not represent China’s official policy,” he said.

The ambassador’s remarks came just days after Beijing’s defence minister met Putin in talks at the Kremlin. It’s further inflamed fears in the West that Beijing is preparing to supply Moscow with weapons and ammunition.

Borrell said any such move would cross a “red line” after Washington shared intelligence among its European allies detailing how Beijing planned to do this.

China just wants to be loved

Ambassador Lu actively participates in China’s “wolf warrior” brand of diplomacy. This is an overtly confrontational approach to asserting Beijing’s policies internationally.

Chairman Xi last year indicated he intended to move away from this tactic, which has been blamed for a plunge in China’s international reputation. He stated his desire for the world to regard his new China as “loveable, admirable, appealing”.

Lu appears to have yet to receive that memo.

 

China's FM:

"China will not lose any part of its territory that has been restored."

There'll be no vagueness at all in our response to anyone who attempts to distort one-China principle.

We'll never back down in face of any act that undermines China’s sovereignty & security." pic.twitter.com/5wN9R4jcBA

— Li Jingjing 李菁菁 (@Jingjing_Li) April 22, 2023

 

Last night, the European Union’s foreign policy spokesman Josep Borrell called Ambassador Lu’s words “unacceptable”.

“The EU can only suppose these declarations do not represent China’s official policy,” he said.

The ambassador’s remarks came just days after Beijing’s defence minister met Putin in talks at the Kremlin. It’s further inflamed fears in the West that Beijing is preparing to supply Moscow with weapons and ammunition.

Borrell said any such move would cross a “red line” after Washington shared intelligence among its European allies detailing how Beijing planned to do this.

China just wants to be loved

Ambassador Lu actively participates in China’s “wolf warrior” brand of diplomacy. This is an overtly confrontational approach to asserting Beijing’s policies internationally.

Chairman Xi last year indicated he intended to move away from this tactic, which has been blamed for a plunge in China’s international reputation. He stated his desire for the world to regard his new China as “loveable, admirable, appealing”.

Lu appears to have yet to receive that memo.
 

 

China's FM:

"China will not lose any part of its territory that has been restored."

There'll be no vagueness at all in our response to anyone who attempts to distort one-China principle.

We'll never back down in face of any act that undermines China’s sovereignty & security." pic.twitter.com/5wN9R4jcBA

— Li Jingjing 李菁菁 (@Jingjing_Li) April 22, 2023

 

He blames “foreign forces” for Chinese citizens erupting in protest after years of draconian COVID-19 lockdown policies. “The protests were quickly exploited by foreign forces,” Lu said in December. “Some Chinese were bought by foreign forces.”

He also wants Taiwanese citizens forcefully “re-educated” to embrace Communist Party dogma over the island’s democratic principles. “We will re-educate. I’m sure that the Taiwanese population will again become favourable of the reunification and will become patriots again,” he said in August last year.

It is legitimate & justified for China to safeguard its sovereignty & territorial integrity. Our commitment to that is unwavering. We hope #ROK will abide by the one-China principle & work with China in actions to maintain the sound & steady growth of bilateral relations.

— 刘晓明Liu Xiaoming (@AmbLiuXiaoMing) April 23, 2023

Beijing also appears set on “re-educating” the world on the meaning of “rules-based order”.

Delegates from 100 countries attending its “International Forum on Democracy” last month were told they are “democracies” - even if run by dictators that actively deny citizens the right to vote for representatives or even openly criticise policies.

Meanwhile, Beijing is resolutely defending what it calls its “sovereignty” in the Himalayas, and East and South China Seas while actively denying its neighbours have any say in the matters.

“We uphold true multilateralism, work for a multi-polar world and greater democracy in international relations, and make global governance more just and equitable,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at the time.