Spy chiefs across Europe are sounding the alarm, as capitals quietly brace for what could come next.
Adrian Zorzut
European intelligence officials have warned a Russian attack on NATO could happen in “months, not years,” stoking fears the continent could be hurtling towards war.
The dire warning comes as hundreds of Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow and its surrounding region in an “unprecedented attack” on Sunday, the final day of the country’s parliamentary elections. Russia has now vowed to “intensify” its strikes on Kyiv.
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Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Republic’s domestic spy agency, BIS, said Moscow could carry out a small-scale invasion of NATO territory bordering Russia, according to The Guardian.
“It’s possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” he said in a rare interview at the agency’s headquarters in Prague.
Mr Koudelka warned this could happen in a matter of “months, not years,” adding that a lot of people were working hard to make sure this didn’t happen.
Normunds Mežviets, director of Latvia’s state security service, the VDD, downplayed the prospect of an attack.
He said his agency hadn’t seen indications of an imminent attack but did concede Moscow was preparing for more decisive action in Europe. He said it was unclear if this was part of a destabilisation plan.
“It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society,” he said.
On Saturday, Estonia’s foreign minister, Jonatan Vseviov, decried “panic on social media” in recent days about a possible attack. “If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he wrote on X.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has so far avoided any action that would provoke a coordinated response from NATO.
Mr Koudelka said instead Russia was trying to “escalate to de-escalate”. “They believe if they escalate enough, then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,” he said.
It comes as the prospect of meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine appears as distant as ever.
Thomas Nilsson, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service, said he was sceptical that President Putin was interested in a deal.
“I haven’t seen any signs that there is a serious consideration in Moscow about real negotiations,” he told The Guardian.
“My assessment is that they are still thinking that they could achieve their strategic objectives, so they are just playing negotiation theatre.”
‘A gamechanger’
All three intelligence bosses said whatever happened, Russia’s campaign of sabotage in Europe was likely to intensify in the coming months.
Mr Nilsson said the recent discovery of an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig airport, which German authorities pinned on Russia, was a “gamechanger”.
“To have an armed UAV drone sent in to a busy airport in the middle of Europe … If you have attacks that could result in losses of life or losses of very critical infrastructure that have a huge implication for society, I think that is a gamechanger,” he said.
Mr Mežviets said Russia was carrying out random sabotage and arson attacks to sow panic.
“We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure. Right now we see a move towards defence industry targets,” he said. “If you do this then the psy-op effect is reached anyway, so you get both things in one.”
Mr Nilsson said Russia hoped these attacks would dampen Western European support for Ukraine, introduce splits in NATO and scare European populations.
Mr Koudelka said Moscow was also trying to stretch the resources of intelligence services.
“Now every fire or every malfunction needs to be investigated by intelligence services as a potential terror attack, and that is a good result for them,” he said.
It comes as experts warned Russia is preparing to escalate its war against Ukraine and step up hybrid attacks on Kyiv’s allies in Europe.
Western intelligence officials believe Mr Putin is preparing for a “stealth mobilisation” of up to 300,000 Russians after the weekend’s parliamentary elections, according to UK newspaper The Telegraph.
They said the Russian leader has been backed into a corner after his forces suffered 1.5 million casualties, including 500,000 fatalities in Ukraine and the invasion became a stalemate.
Over the last few days, European capitals have changed the way they speak about the Russian threat.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said intelligence shared by Poland, Ukraine and NATO indicates Russia could soon conduct drone or missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine while attempting to portray them as accidents, according to the paper.
In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron held a three-hour meeting with France’s intelligence chiefs and political leaders warning them the Russian hybrid threat had intensified.
Estonia indicated it’s ready to close its border with Russia while Lithuania recently approved a mass evacuation plan for citizens in the event of a conflict.
Latvia has begun fortifying their eastern borders with Russia and while Finland has removed the legal barrier preventing allied nuclear weapons from entering Finnish territory, according to Our Country, Our Choice, an American think tank.
It said the EU is advising 50 million residents to maintain at least 72 hours of food, water, medicine, cash and emergency supplies.
Meanwhile, in the UK, work has begun on the government’s so-called “war book,” which hasn’t been updated in decades, according to the BBC.
American withdrawal
It comes amid reports the US is considering a major withdrawal of troops from Europe. It’s believed the Pentagon wants to pull between 25,000 and 40,000 troops, as well as military aircraft, ships and weapons away from the region.
The US has denied the report but it’s understood NATO’s senior commanders held talks with Pentagon chiefs about US troop posture, the alliance said.
This comes as tensions in the Middle East flare up again. The US warned fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis could “escalate rapidly” after a missile attack targeted Riyadh for the first time since the Yemen conflict resumed.
US President Donald Trump cut short a weekend at Camp David, a secluded presidential complex in rural Maryland, to return unexpectedly to the White House.
The White House gave no explanation for the early return but that did not stop speculation mounting that Mr Trump is preparing to escalate the war in Iran.
Earlier this week, the President told US outlet Axios he had a “big decision” coming up.
“Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?” he said, in an apparent reference to a ground war in Iran.
On Sunday, Iran’s central military command said it was notified the US and allies in the region were preparing to resume military action against Tehran, according to The Arab Weekly.
Iran’s military central command stated on state media that any fresh assault would provoke sustained retaliation against US military installations and interests, adding that Washington’s regional allies would be regarded as parties to the conflict.
