Ukraine

The Only Plausible Path to End the War in Ukraine

Author: Thomas Wright Source: The Atlantic

August 18, 2025 at 10:59

Juan Moreno / Europa Press / Getty August 18, 20

Has the Trump administration misread Moscow?

According to the Trump administration, the broad outlines of Vladimir Putin’s proposal to end the war in Ukraine are coming into focus. Ukraine would give Russia control of approximately 6,600 square kilometers, or 12 percent, of the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) in eastern Ukraine—this includes territory that Russia does not now occupy. Russia would leave approximately 440 square kilometers of territory in Sumy and Kharkiv. That “land swap” on its own would be an impossible sell to the Ukrainians. But Donald Trump’s team is touting progress in another area, claiming that Putin would be open to a European security guarantee, including a military presence inside Ukraine, with an “American backstop” (although no U.S. troops would be in Ukraine).

European leaders will join President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington, D.C., today to flesh out what a security guarantee would look like. A European official with knowledge of the briefings told me that if an agreement can be reached with the Russians on its specifics, negotiations on territorial questions would follow. Trump is pushing for a trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky within a week to seal the deal, but the Europeans believe they will need more time—at least a few weeks—to figure out the details and see if there is a viable way forward.

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