‘Not encouraging’: New poll’s blow to Kamala Harris

The New York Times/Siena College poll, published on Friday, has Ms Harris in a dead heat with Donald Trump with both on 48 per cent of the national vote. 

A final CNN poll, also released in the US on Friday, found the candidates tied at 47 per cent each. 

The New York Times poll shows a small but significant drop in support for Ms Harris in the closing weeks of the campaign. In a poll by the same newspaper, published in early October, Ms Harris was at 49 per cent, three basis points in front of Mr Trump. 

In previous NY Times polls the pair have been neck and neck. While theoretically that means either candidate could win, there will be shock in the Harris campaign that she has not pulled away from her rival in the race despite billions of dollars spent adn months of frantic campaigning. 

“The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms Harris,” the New York Timeswrote. 

“In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House.”

It’s thought that the Democrats need to have a several point lead in national polls to be confident of victory in the swing states. 

It’s in these swing states, that decide who ends up in the White House, that the Democrats are particularly worried. 

The so called “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, have often voted for the Democratic candidate. Teh three and helped propel Joe Biden to victory in 2020. 

But anger from some communities in these states at the US’ backing of Israel in its war against Hamas as well as popularity for Mr Trump from blue collar workers could see this wall break for the Republicans. 

Certainly, Ms Harris is more competitive than Mr Biden when it comes to facing up to Mr Trump. But it still may not be enough for victory on November 5. 

Them New York Times polling also revealed that immigration, an issue Mr Trump is hammering hard, is now front of mind for 15 per cent of voters, up from 12 per cent.

However, Mr Trump’s lead in the eyes of voters in terms of stewardship of the economy has been pared back by Ms Harris.

The Democrat also has a healthy lead when it comes to preserving abortion. 

Other polls paint different picture of the state of the race.

A Wall Street Journal poll gives Mr Trump a three-point lead of 49 per cent to Ms Harris’ 46 per cent. 

But separate Reuters/Ipsos and Monmouth University polls have reversed that giving Ms Harris a three-point lead over Mr Trump. 

The New York Times’ poll of polls gives Ms Harris a one-point national lead of 49 per cent to Mr Trump’s 48 per cent. All well within the margin of effort. 

Political website FiveThirtyEight’s poll of polls also has Ms Harris in the lead by 1.5 per cent. 

In the swing states, FiveThirtyEight has Mr Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Ms Harris is leading in Michigan while Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all toss ups.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, released last week, found Ms Harris had a minute advantage over Ms Trump in the swing states overall. 

“Harris outperforms her rival in the poll on some personal attributes that may help her with those disaffected Republicans,” stated Bloomberg. 

“When which candidate asked is best described as mentally fit, honest and compassionate, swing-state likely voters chose Harris by wide margins,” 

But, Bloomberg stated, voters polled found Mr Trump to be more experienced, patriotic and a strong leader.

Large swath of voters still undecided

The New York Times has estimated that around 15 per cent of voters have yet to decide who to plump for and that Ms Harris is leading with these voters. 

Around 10 per cent of Americans have voted early with almost 60 per cent of them opting for Ms Harris. Although Democrats are usually keener on voting early while Republicans generally go to the ballet boxes on election day. 

Last week, renowned American investor Stanley Druckenmiller said the stock market was already “convinced” Donald Trump will win the presidential election. 

“I must say, in the last 12 days, the market is very convinced Trump is going to win,” Mr Druckenmiller told Bloomberg Television.

“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto. You can even see it in DJT, his social media company.

“So if you put a gun to my head – and, thank God, there’s not one to my head, so this really doesn’t matter – I would have to say Trump is the favourite to win the election now.

“But who knows what these polls even mean? No one even responds to them anymore. But that’s what we’re looking at.”

– with Samuel Clench.