By Alan Lolaev, visiting researcher at the Laboratory for Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics, Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

After the apparent loss of the first presidential debate, the obvious question concerning presidential elections was “How long until Biden drops off from the election?”

The final days of Biden’s presidential campaign after the debate were reminiscent of the sinking of the Titanic: the inexorability of the crash was matched only by its swiftness. Everyone whose support seemed unshakable back in the fall, like Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives and Senate, prominent left-leaning journalists and major donors to the Democratic Party, turned away from Biden.

Finally, in a very rare but not unexpected decision, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the election, saying that it was time to “pass the torch to a new generation.” In social media posts, he explained his decision as “best for the party, the presidency and American democracy.”

Biden became one of the few sitting American presidents who decided not to run for a second term. This moment is unique in US political history, since Biden’s decision was made shortly before the next presidential election, after he had already effectively received the Democratic nomination. The primaries ran from January to June but, by March 2024, Biden had secured enough votes to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

There have already been similar precedents in US history: in the 20th century, Lyndon B Johnson and Harry S Truman also did not run for a second term. However, they took office after the death of the sitting presidents and eventually served more than just one presidential term. Truman served all but 82 days of almost two terms.

The last time Lyndon B Johnson was the one to announce his decision not to run for reelection in 1968. Like Biden, Johnson had health problems: he died two days after the end of his supposed second full term as president. In addition, he also lost the support of important factions within his own party, in his case due to his failure to overcome the foreign-policy stalemate of the Vietnam War. Fearing a split in the Democratic Party and failure in the primaries, he announced at the end of a lengthy televised address on the War in Vietnam that he would not seek or accept his party’s nomination for a second term.

Biden’s support for Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination was obvious and perhaps the only possible option in the absence of time for full-fledged primaries. Delegates to the party’s convention in Chicago in mid-August are likely to support it. Any internal conflicts within the Democrats will benefit Trump, something Biden and Harris will emphasize at every opportunity leading up to the convention in order to secure the nomination of the sitting Vice President.

Trump has long argued that Biden is not capable of governing the country, but after the president announced his withdrawal from the 2024 race, he definitely did not actually become the beneficiary of this decision. For the Republican nominee, maintaining the status quo would have been much more profitable, since it almost guaranteed him another four years in the Oval Office.

Still, Trump showed his strength and political might, as in just a few days he not only survived an assassination attempt but also, in a powerful move, ousted his opponent from office after a single debate.

Kamala Harris campaign: A solo long-shot for the presidency

The lack of alternatives to Harris’ candidacy for Democrats, however, does not invalidate a number of problematic issues related to her nomination.

She faces an uphill battle: She has only about 100 days to convince American voters to support her in the presidential election. That short time frame stands in stark contrast to former President Donald Trump’s campaign, which began in November 2022. His campaign was more than full of bright events, many of which, however, had negative consequences. But this does not change the fact that the Republican nominee was the number one newsmaker, enjoying an absurd amount of publicity unlike Harris, who stayed in Biden’s shadow for almost four years.

Elections in the United States are more personalized, which means they require more time and money for media promotion of the candidate. A comparison of US election campaigns with European countries reveals this key difference. Parliamentary systems tend to be centralized, with candidates going to elections with well-known party agendas, which reduces differences between candidates within the same party. This means that if, for any reason, a candidate is replaced, voter support is less dependent on candidate recognition and policy track record, unlike in the US.

Harris, who raised more than $100 million in just a few days after Biden dropped out of the presidential race, should continue her vigorous fundraising as campaigns quickly burn through funds. Therefore, Democrats must maintain high levels of fundraising to support Harris’ campaign and counter significant donations supporting Trump and his advertising strategy.

On the other hand, Harris may benefit from a relatively short campaign period. Long campaigns can lead to voter fatigue and the accumulation of high anti-ratings, as happened with Trump and Biden. The relatively brief campaigning could also reduce the margin for error and limit the time Republicans can spend building negative media perceptions of Harris.

But still the biggest challenge for Democrats is Harris’ relations with voters. Despite serving as Vice President, the Californian remains less familiar to many voters, mostly known for her mediocre debate performances during the 2020 Democratic primary, which eventually forced her to drop out and seek Biden’s decision to pick her as his running mate.

Harris has strong support from Democratic leaders and has access to Biden’s significant financial and political resources, but her success will depend on her ability to build a broad coalition of voters who believe she can lead the country as the next president. In the pretty fractional Democratic Party, Harris must balance between different policy groups (from centrists like Biden to left-wing figures like Bernie Sanders), in order to become a unifying candidate for voters as diverse as white suburbanites, metropolitan racial minorities, union members and college students.

Efforts to challenge Harris’ nomination from other prominent Democratic leaders are unlikely. The safest strategy for them is to take a cautious position and move according to the “party line.” They will be looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, with the opportunity to mount a full-fledged campaign without a formidable challenger in Donald Trump. After all, losing the election to Trump now means ruining your political career, which could very well happen to Harris, as it happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Power begets power: Importance of congressional and state elections

Of course, the presidential election is the most important but by no means the only important election this fall.

On November 5, 2024, Americans will elect not only the Commander-in-Chief and the Vice President of the United States. At the same time, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 34 of the 100 members of the Senate will be elected to form the 119th US Congress. There will also be elections for thirteen state and territory governors, as well as many other state and local elections.

The political balance of power at the state level is of enormous importance in American politics. States still retain a high degree of autonomy from Washington and can, albeit with some difficulty, implement their own ideological course based on which party the governor belongs to and which party has a majority in the local legislature.

Moreover, Congress has far greater influence, with the power of the purse, including funding government programs and military spending, and significant powers to limit the president’s decisions. In the current political polarization in the United States, without the support of Congress, the President’s agenda may be stalled or blocked. The system of checks and balances allows Congress to control the executive branch and investigate, challenge, and limit the actions of the president. Congress also controls federal spending and budget allocation, which mean far-reaching influence in foreign policy as well. In this situation, Democrats can smooth out the effect of a likely defeat in the presidential election by successfully completing the election to Congress, securing a majority in order to minimize the consequences of another four-year term for Donald Trump.