Middle East

U.S. Warns Iran of ‘Serious Risk’ if It Conducts Major Attack on Israel

Author: Editors Desk, R. Gordon and Lara Seligman Source: WSJ:

August 8, 2024 at 14:52

The inauguration ceremony for Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president, in Tehran in late July. PHOTO: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY/ZUMA PRESS

The Biden administration has been mounting an intensive campaign to encourage both sides to de-escalate.

The U.S. has warned Iran that its newly elected government and economy could suffer a devastating blow if it were to mount a major attack against Israel, a U.S. official said.

The warning has been communicated to Tehran directly as well as through intermediaries, said the official, who declined to provide specifics.

“The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” said the official.

Those messages have also put Tehran on notice “that there is a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path,” the official added.

The Biden administration has been mounting an intensive campaign to discourage Iran, its proxies and Israel from undertaking military action that would escalate tensions in the region as Washington tries to salvage prospects of a cease-fire in Gaza.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. has communicated “that message directly to Iran,” though he didn’t provide details of what was said or how it was communicated.

The U.S. message to Tehran, officials said, wasn’t intended as a threat to carry out U.S. military action against targets in Iran but was intended as a warning about the risks of provoking a robust military response from Israel.

But the U.S. has also made clear that it is ready to use force to defend Israel, as it did in April. Stealthy F-22 fighters have been deployed to a base in the Middle East, the U.S. Central Command said Wednesday.

The U.S. has sent more ships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles to the region. A U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is also in the Gulf of Oman. The Navy has also moved an F/A-18 fighter squadron from that carrier to a base in a Middle East nation to position the aircraft closer to the action should hostilities erupt, according to another U.S. official.

U.S. officials still don’t have clear indications of the scope and timing of an Iranian response, unlike in the days leading up to Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack on Israel. Tehran carried out that attack in retaliation for Israel’s killing of a senior Iranian paramilitary commander and other Iranian military officers in Damascus.

Based on the latest intelligence, officials think a response, if it happens, may now occur over the weekend.

“It’s pushing to the right a little bit,” according to a third U.S. official, who declined to discuss intelligence but said the indications are Iran is “still planning.”

Officials also don’t know for sure whether Hezbollah plans to attack at the same time in a coordinated offensive with Iran or separately. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of missiles that can reach Israel and the concern is that the group and Iran might attack at the same time to try to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses.

“Last time we got more of a heads up, and this time people are making their best guesses,” said the third U.S. official.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in last week, is thought to be open to renewing dialogue with the West, though fundamental policy has long been set by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com and Lara Seligman at lara.seligman@wsj.com