Ukraine received no early warning before ballistic missiles struck Kyiv – and officials suspect the silence from Washington was no accident.
ANALYSIS
Ukraine has stood firm against Russian invaders for almost five years.
But the European democracy of 39 million people has just been stabbed in the back. By the leader of the free world.
Will President Volodymyr Zelensky fight on?
Can he?
“Well, I think what’s happening is that [Putin] wants to make a deal, and we have to get Zelensky to want to make a deal,” US President Donald Trump insisted this week.
That’s somewhat counterintuitive.
Ukraine paused its attacks on Russian oil refineries immediately after the mercurial 47th President of the United States unilaterally declared a ceasefire over the weekend.
Russia went on to strike Ukrainian power plants.
But the US Commander-in-Chief yesterday half-heartedly denied reports that his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff had, at the weekend, threatened to pull ammunition and intelligence support if Ukraine continued to fight back.
“We are really helping them get to a final answer,” Mr Trump told reporters.
“We are helping them, and we are sharing intel. We want the war to end, so we’re working with them and with Russia”.
As he spoke, ballistic missiles fell unannounced through Ukrainian skies. At least one person was killed and 13 injured after they struck a thermal power plant and residential apartments in the capital, Kyiv.
“This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed — when there is an early warning about ballistic missiles,” Mr Zelensky said overnight.
“Regarding this strike, unfortunately, there was no warning from partners.”
Then, a second wave of ballistic missiles arrived.
“Once again, no early warning from our partners,” he added.
‘The final answer’
Air raid sirens sound. People run for shelter. Air defences are activated.
Ukraine has been receiving intelligence warnings of Russian activities from its friends and allies since February 2022.
Among them are reports from NORAD and NATO radar and satellite sensor grids designed to detect a ballistic missile in its boost phase, from launch to the edge of Earth’s atmosphere.
On Tuesday, those warnings fell silent.
“They [the White House] told Ukrainians no warning happened because of bad weather conditions, which is seen as not an adequate reason in Kyiv,” an anonymous Ukrainian official told Politico.
“Many are getting increasingly worried this might not have been the case.”
Mr Zelensky cannot understand Mr Trump’s thinking.
“Ukraine has not carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries or the energy sector in general for the two days since the American President announced an energy ceasefire. But Russia did not heed the American President,” Mr Zelensky insists.
“The Russians have attacked both our energy facilities and our critical infrastructure, sending absolutely clear signals that they have no intention of refraining from strikes on Ukraine. Nineteen regions of our country have come under attack in these two days alone.”
Moscow has not officially commented on Mr Trump’s proclaimed energy ceasefire. But it has issued a regular statement detailing the Ukrainian military and weapons facilities it has targeted.
Presidents Trump and Putin reportedly spoke on the phone for 90 minutes on Friday. That’s when they inked a sanction-busting deal to buy 1.7 million tons of Russian diesel (equivalent to a fortnight’s consumption).
A startled and angered Mr Zelensky described the deal as a “gift” to President Putin.
Mr Trump retaliated, stating it was time “for Ukraine to get a new President”.
Winter is coming
Mr Trump declared he would end the war in Ukraine “on day one” of his second term.
Instead, he immediately halted all direct financial and military aid to the embattled Eastern European democracy. Europe must buy all ammunition and equipment on Ukraine’s behalf.
Now more than 630 days into his administration, the war shows little sign of ending anytime soon.
Both sides are hurting.
Russian forces suffered an unexpected battlefield defeat in recent months. Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi used combined robot and drone forces to overrun frontline positions. Behind the lines, attacks on Russian oil and infrastructure have cut output by as much as 60 per cent.
Ukraine, however, is a much smaller nation. Its troops are tired. Its economy is in tatters. And Russia is receiving direct military support in the form of troops, missiles, drones and ammunition from its ally North Korea.
Mr Zelensky in October warned that Moscow had stockpiled 700 ballistic missiles for a sustained campaign against Ukrainian electricity and heating infrastructure during the winter months.
“Putin believes he can break Ukraine during the coming winter and has no intention of agreeing to any temporary pauses or ceasefire proposals. On the contrary, he is planning what is likely to be the largest bombing campaign of the entire war,” an Atlantic Council think-tank report states.
“Russia’s tactics are a recipe for a humanitarian catastrophe that could force millions of Ukrainians to flee their homes and spark a new flood of refugees entering the EU.”
The golden rule
“Trump’s diesel deal is another attempt to bully by pressuring Ukraine to give up one of its recently most effective tools,” argues University of Birmingham international security analyst Professor Stefan Wolff.
“Kyiv’s long-range drone and missile campaign against Russian refineries has reportedly caused Russian refining capacity to fall by up to 60 per cent over recent months.”
Mr Trump blames Ukraine for the world’s oil shortage.
Not his own attacks on Iran that have led to the closure of the oil chokepoints, the Persian Gulf’s Hormuz Strait and the Red Sea’s Gate of Tears.
Notably, Mr Trump is yet to criticise Putin for ignoring his weekend ceasefire declaration. All his attention is on Mr Zelensky.
Jared Kushner (Mr Trump’s son-in-law) and Steve Witkoff (Mr Trump’s long-term business partner and friend) visited Moscow in September as diplomatic envoys.
While they failed to make any progress on a ceasefire deal, they did reportedly return to the White House with promises of family stakes in Russia’s Lukoil oil and gas refinery business.
Mr Trump’s diesel deal followed just one month later.
“I want to thank President Putin, to be honest with you,” Mr Trump said after breaching Congressional sanctions on Russia.
“President Putin would like to see a settlement, strongly. He’s freeing up a lot of oil for the world. OK? That’s a good thing. And by the way, at a very low price.”
It’s not enough diesel to ease US shortages or lower prices.
Instead, US historian and commentator Anne Applebaum says this looks like “an abrupt, Hail Mary attempt to force Ukraine to surrender and to save the Russian economy”.
“Perhaps [this is] in order to finally complete the multiple business deals that the Russians are known to have discussed with American negotiators and others in Trump’s orbit. These include deals involving the Nord Stream gas pipelines, mineral mining in the Arctic, the Russian assets frozen in European banks, and more.”
‘We are alone’
“There is, at the head of the United States, someone who is either a useful idiot or an agent of the destruction of European strength and freedom,” French presidential candidate Raphaël Glucksmann declared on Tuesday.
“[Russia] targets us directly, us Europeans, and we are alone.”
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stuck close to Mr Putin’s well-established talking points.
“Zelensky, of course, being in a state of hysteria, is hardly capable of taking well-considered actions at present,” Mr Peskov told local media yesterday.
“If he were able to do so, he would be demonstrating a willingness to engage in peace negotiations.”
Mr Zelensky is now embattled on all sides.
And Europe’s resolve is not assured.
“The Ukrainians cannot stop fighting because, if they do, their country will be conquered and they will suffer the fate of their occupied territories: leaders murdered, children kidnapped, repression and concentration camps for everyone else,” argues Ms Applebaum.
“If Trump knows this, then he does not care.”
The coming winter months will be crucial.
It may determine whether Ukraine stands or falls.
“Most worrying in the long term, all the signs are that under Trump the US is closer to Moscow’s position than at any point since the full-scale invasion,” Professor Wolff concludes.
Mr Trump, however, does not doubt where the problem lies.
“Zelensky could have settled this war many times. Many, many times. And he chooses not to,” he maintains.
“Very difficult. It’s a war that should’ve never been started.”
Settlement entails surrender.
Mr Zelensky didn’t start the war.
Putin won’t end it.
And Mr Trump can’t understand why Ukraine won’t capitulate.
“If you look at the odds, you’re talking about billions more soldiers on one side than the other,” he states.
“It would have been smart if he had made a deal two years ago; he would have been a lot better off.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer
