​ ‘Rapid acceleration’: US in new virus phase ​

US hospitals are expecting 96 million coronavirus patients and 480,000 dead, even as President Donald Trump touts his “success” in containing the virus.

“We have to implement broad mitigation strategies,” former US Food and Drug Commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb told the CBS news service last night. “The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion in this country. We’ll get through this, but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months probably of difficulty.”

How difficult?

Business Insider has obtained a copy of a February 26 presentation by the American Hospital Association (AHA). Its topic: what to expect with the looming outbreak. Its message: expect a pandemic that’s ten times worse than a bad flu season.

The numbers are sobering.
 

#COVID19 - storm in US has begun. Rapid action needed to reduce impact, save lives. Immediately: restrict visits to nursing homes & make sure ill staff don't work - paid sick leave. Steps all of us, medically vulnerable, health care, & society can take at: https://t.co/KTk59K0Iax

— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) March 8, 2020

Every sufferer will infect, on average, 2.5 other people.

The number of cases appearing is likely to double every 7-10 days.

Some 5 per cent of these will need hospitalisation. Up to 2 per cent will need intensive care.

In raw numbers, that translates to 96 million sick in the US.

Of those, 4.8 million will be hospitalised.

Some 1.9 million will need intensive care. Projections predict 480,000 deaths.

The data these numbers are based on is two weeks old. But any updates are likely to be a refinement rather than a significant change.

But there is one big question unanswered: Can the US healthcare system cope?

That depends on government response.

RELATED: Follow the latest coronavirus updates

RELATED: Should I cancel my travel plans?
 

EPIDEMIC CURVE

Just as epidemics start from seemingly nowhere, they eventually fade away. The rate of new infections in between is known as the epidemic curve.

It’s this curve that could cause health systems to collapse.