Twitter Could Be Running Out of Time

In the last five years, shares of Twitter (TWTR) are down 57%. Time is running out for a turnaround.

Last week, shares of Twitter fell as reports circulated in the media that the Board of Directors was meeting to discuss cost cuts, asset sales and layoffs. While Twitter's boardmay also put the company up for sale, it's not entirely clear who would be the buyer. With a $13 billion market cap, it would probably cost at least $15 billion to acquire Twitter.

Revenue growth has slowed for eight quarters in a row. At the end of July, the company reported a second-quarter miss and cut third-quarter guidance. Second-quarter fiscal 2016 revenue was $602 million, up 19.9%, but about $5 million below expectations. Revenue fell 8% sequentially, which was better than the 16% sequential decline posted in the first quarter, but disappointing nonetheless. Ad revenue was $535 million, up 18%, but below estimates of $540 million. Mobile advertising was 89% of total advertising revenue.

Data licensing totaled $67 million, up 35%. U.S. revenue was up 12% to $361 million. International revenue increased 33% to $241 million.

But earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $175 million was above Street expectations of $154 million. The better-than-expected EBITDA margin came from lower expenses and a drop in R&D spending.

Monthly average user growth was up just 3% to 313 million -- pretty underwhelming when you consider that Action Alerts PLUS holding Facebook (FB) , for example, reported user growth of 15%. Average MAUs were 66 million, up just 1%, and compared to 65 million in the first quarter.

Second--quarter earnings of 13 cents per share were 4 cents better than expected.

But on the conference call afterwards, management slashed third-quarter guidance. Twitter anticipates revenue of between $590 million and $610 million, vs. the $681 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall between $135 million and $150 million.

Third-quarter stock-based compensation will be in the range of $165 million to $175 million. Twitter's stock-based compensation expense is totally out of whack with other social media companies. Stock compensation at Twitter is about 28% of revenue, more than double its peers. If Twitter is acquired, insiders are going the hit the jackpot.

For fiscal 2016, the company is planning capital expenditures in the range of $300 million to $375 million, which is about $12 million less than previously estimated.

Management seems unconcerned with the pace of growth. I find that troubling. Twitter is not rolling out new features, such as mobile video, fast enough. User engagement is slowing dramatically. The third-quarter guidance implies just 5% revenue growth and only 3% advertising growth.

Analysts still think the company can post 2016 revenue of $2.5 billion, up 13%, and earnings of 54 cents per share. But, as it stands right now, next year looks flat with this year.

In my opinion, single digit revenue growth (2% to 4%) is just not enough to get this stock meaningfully higher. The shares popped off the bottom, but that was just speculation over an acquisition or layoffs. It isn't sustainable. Unless Twitter's live-streaming offering unexpectedly takes off or its broadcast deal with the NFL works out, Twitter management has run out of time to turn the company around.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.