Trump impeachment trial: What acquittal would mean for 2020 election

Barring an unforeseen and unexpected blockbuster development, a largely party-line vote will acquit him of the two charges brought by the House of Representatives, which itself approved those articles of impeachment on a nearly party-line vote.

Both sides will soon be left to sift through the political rubble just nine months before a national election that has the entire House, more than a third of the Senate and the presidency itself on the ballot.

According to polls, the nation's political disposition is much as it was before the impeachment process began. The US is sharply divided along partisan lines. The president's approval ratings hover in the low to mid-40s, roughly where they've been the entirety of his term in office. His re-election chances are dicey but far from slim. 

The decision not to seek witnesses - which polls show Americans overwhelming wanted - may be forgotten before long. After all, Democrats and Republicans had very different views about what "witnesses" means. The former wanted to hear from Trump administration officials like John Bolton and Mick Mulvaney, who they think could corroborate the charges against the president. The latter sought to call Joe Biden's son Hunter, head impeachment manager Adam Schiff and the whistleblower - and will be just as happy to see the whole matter put to rest.

Impeachment didn't change the existing political disposition in the US; instead, it was subsumed by it.

Polls don't tell the whole story, however, and there are other signs that the impeachment proceedings have made an impact.

A Republican base energised

At a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, on Thursday night, a basketball arena packed with supporters watched Trump once again rail against what he called the impeachment "hoax". He said that past impeachments proceedings - of Andrew Johnson in 1863, Richard Nixon in 1973 and Bill Clinton in 1999 - were "dark periods" in US history, but his presidency was a "happy" one. 

The cheering crowd seemed to agree.

"I think he gets re-elected because of what Democrats are doing," said Tracy Root of Des Moines, who came to the rally with his son, Tony. "They couldn't beat him at the polls, so they've got to impeach him."

Sara Johnson, who drove four hours from Minnesota to attend the rally, said she had watched every minute of the trial and found Democratic efforts to convict the president "amusing".

If anything, she added, Trump was better off because Americans are seeing "how corrupt the system is".

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