Israel Aims to Destroy Hamas. What Comes Next for Gaza Is Unclear.

TEL AVIV—Israel is preparing a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip with one clear goal: to destroy the ability of Hamas to rule there. But Israel hasn’t offered any indication of what could happen next, and there are no good options. 

Israel has signaled that a major offensive is imminent. It has sent tanks, snipers, artillery units and tens of thousands of troops to the Gaza Strip border, and told civilians who live in the northern part of the enclave—an area with a population of 1.1 million—to leave for their own safety. 

“We will destroy the rule of Hamas,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Friday after meeting U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Tel Aviv. “We will eliminate the military capabilities of Hamas. We will make sure this threat does not exist on our borders. It will be lengthy. It will be lethal. It will be powerful. And it will be for forever.”

But Israeli leaders have yet to answer another important question: What comes after Hamas? 

For Israel, there are no good alternatives, say current and former Israeli officials. Possibilities range from a direct Israeli military re-occupation of Gaza, to pulling out completely after the war and allowing Palestinians to figure it out for themselves.

As Israel grapples with the aftermath of a Hamas assault that killed some 1,300 Israelis over the weekend, punishing those responsible for the violence is seen by many across Israel as much more important than working out what happens after Hamas. 

“I don’t give a damn,” said Jacob Nagel, who served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser and is in touch with government officials. “It’s much more important to act and finish the problem. And then we can decide what to do.” 

“I used to say: think then act. What happened this weekend changed all the rules of play,” added Nagel. His view is echoed by Israeli military and political leaders across the political spectrum.

One U.S. official said there is little discussion so far with Israeli officials about the day after. It’s a conundrum that faced U.S. leaders after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, when the attack by al Qaeda in Afghanistan paved the way for America to invade Iraq, which became a costly, 10-year occupation. Israel should think through the consequences and not rush into a war with no exit strategy, the official said.
 

“There is no plan,” the U.S. official said. “If you destroy Hamas, what’s going to fill the vacuum? You destroy al Qaeda and you get ISIS. You destroy Hamas, you get Hamas 2.0.”

Israel has fought four wars in the Gaza Strip with Hamas since the militant group seized control of the isolated Mediterranean enclave in 2007. This time is going to be different.

In the past, Israel didn’t push for a decisive victory in Gaza. Israel effectively treated Hamas as a necessary evil on its southern border, a dangerous enemy it couldn’t eradicate for fear that something worse could take its place.  

During the 16 years of Hamas rule in Gaza, Israeli leaders established an uneasy detente with Hamas militants and embraced the idea that the group’s goal of destroying Israel would be tempered as it gained political power and the responsibilities of governing Gaza. Israel allowed Qatar and other countries in the region to pump billions of dollars into Gaza to ensure that its residents had food, energy and clean water.