ROME—The last time the Catholic Church’s cardinals picked a pope, they wanted an outsider to overhaul a scandal-plagued Vatican. They got more of a disrupter in Pope Francis than many had bargained for.

After Francis’ stormy 12-year pontificate, some cardinals now say they want a successor who can steady the ship and defuse tensions between progressives and conservatives over divorce, same-sex relationships, priestly celibacy and other contentious issues.

“Many cardinals are tired of the roller coaster that has been this pontificate. Many of them will look for some stability,” said Massimo Faggioli, a church historian at Villanova University.

Francis appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals who can vote, so it is unlikely a majority will repudiate his efforts to bring the church closer to ordinary believers, especially the poor and marginalized, by emphasizing its pastoral role over doctrinaire finger-wagging.

Only a small number of traditionalist cardinals want to return to a papacy that enforces a universal orthodoxy on sexual morality and gender issues, in the manner of Francis’ predecessor Benedict XVI.

But a larger minority of moderate conservatives could block contenders they view as too radical on questions such as women’s ordination, priestly celibacy and blessings for same-sex couples.

 

 

Region breakdown of voting-eligible cardinals, by pope

 

U.S. and

Canada

Latin

America

Europe

Africa

Oceania

Asia

Paul VI

1963–’78

Total: 77

John Paul II

1978–’05

Total: 115

Benedict XVI

2005–’13

Total: 115

Francis

2013–’25

Total: 135

Selected by Pope Francis

 

Note: Omits Pope John Paul I (Aug. 1978 - Sept. 1978)
Source: The Vatican
Taylor Umlauf, Andrew Barnett and Brian McGill/WSJ

An ideologically moderate cardinal with the diplomatic finesse to bridge the church’s divisions, while maintaining Francis’ pastoral focus, might have good prospects.

Many cardinals would prefer a pope with enough charisma to continue Francis’ outreach to the world beyond the Catholic Church, including developing relations with other faiths and maintaining a voice on political and economic issues, such as wars, migration and climate change.

Yet the ideal candidate needs technocratic skills to fix the Vatican’s chronic and growing budget deficit, an area where Francis struggled. 

And he probably shouldn’t be too young, meaning much less than 70 years of age. Cardinals are usually wary of picking a young pope whose reign might be overly long.

Germans have a name for a hard-to-find combination of skills: eierlegende Wollmilchsau, meaning a sow that lays eggs while producing wool and milk.

None of the men seen as papabile, Italian for “popeable,” tick every box. That makes this conclave one of the most open contests in recent history. 

Here are 10 of the men seen as front-runners. Some experts say the list is potentially twice as long, and a wild-card pick is possible.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

The 70-year-old Italian is the Vatican’s secretary of state, effectively its prime minister. Undoubtedly a contender, he has the global contacts and diplomatic skills to assemble supporters in the College of Cardinals. Parolin would represent continuity, but he didn’t have the closest relationship with Francis, which could help him with skeptics of the last pope. His lack of charisma could count against him. So could the wobbly state of Vatican finances and heavy losses on a London real-estate investment on his watch. A deal he negotiated with China, which gave Beijing’s ruling Communist Party a say in appointing Catholic bishops, remains controversial.

Cardinal Mario Grech

The Maltese cardinal, 68, is a leading progressive candidate. He is a champion of Francis’ lenient stance on giving Communion to Catholics who divorce and remarry, and he has defended liberal German bishops who pushed to change church practices, including allowing the ordination of women deacons. He advocates a decentralized institution that allows for different ways to engage followers in a diverse, globalized church. But conservatives have warned of a schism in the church unless progressives’ push for changes is reined in.

Cardinal Péter Erdő

The 72-year-old primate of Hungary is perhaps the strongest conservative contender. A multilingual intellectual, Erdő has called for unity within the church. His views on divorce, immigration, gay civil unions or the use of the Latin Mass are traditional, but he isn’t as hard-line as some of Francis’ toughest critics. Skeptics say he lacks charisma and a popular touch.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle

The “Asian Francis,” former archbishop of Manila and now a senior official in the Vatican administration, is a leading contender from the global South. The 67-year-old Filipino cardinal shares Francis’ focus on social justice and preference for a merciful church, while defending traditional Catholic teachings on abortion and contraception. His star has dimmed since 2022, when Francis removed him as the head of Caritas Internationalis, the church’s global charitable organization, following management and morale problems. Tagle might also be too young for cardinals who don’t want a long pontificate.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

After the Argentine Francis, choosing the Archbishop of Kinshasa would be another leap toward a more global papacy. Africa is the continent where Catholicism is growing most. The Congolese cardinal would uphold Francis’ focus on social justice, the poor and dialogue with other faiths, as well as his outspokenness about world affairs. Ambongo has objected to Francis’ lenient guidelines on priestly blessings for same-sex couples, which could appeal to conservatives. His relative youth, at 65, and lack of experience in Vatican governance could hurt him.

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost

An American pope is hard to imagine, most Vatican-watchers say. Many cardinals don’t want to look like they are aligning the global church with the superpower, especially while President Trump’s slashing of development aid and plans for the large-scale deportation of migrants clash with the church’s concerns. If any contender can overcome having a U.S. passport, it might be the Chicago-born Cardinal Prevost. After years as a missionary and bishop in Peru, Prevost rose under Francis to become the Vatican’s top official for selecting bishops in much of the world. At 69, he could be a dark horse.

Cardinal Gérald Lacroix

A North American pope would more likely be Canadian than American. The Archbishop of Quebec supported Francis’ humility and emphasis on a pastoral, listening church. Francis made him a member of his council of cardinals, a body the pope established to advise on church governance. Last year, Lacroix was cleared of sexual-abuse allegations. At 67, he is among the younger contenders.

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo

Myanmar’s first cardinal is perhaps the strongest contender from Asia. He’s about the right age at 76, and could bridge some of the differences between progressives and conservatives. He was close to Francis, but has also expressed admiration for Francis’ conservative predecessor, Benedict. Bo supported Francis’ vision of a church that listens, and his concern for the environment. He is viewed as conservative but hasn’t been an active participant in the church’s culture wars.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

The archbishop of Bologna is another progressive favorite who would continue Francis’ work, seeking to make the church more inclusive while reaching out to other faiths. The 69-year-old is close to the Catholic lay community Sant’Egidio, an international association heavily involved in social work. In 2023, Francis assigned Zuppi to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. It didn’t bring peace closer. Zuppi is well-connected in Italy, but his left-wing image and lack of foreign languages could count against him.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline

The Archbishop of Marseille is seen as a protégé of Francis with a popular touch. From modest origins, he champions a church welcoming to marginalized people and dialogue with other religions, including Islam. He hasn’t been outspoken on polarizing topics. And he is on the young side at 66.