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6 year oldBerlusconi, a flamboyant three-time former prime minister, cannot hold elected office because of a fraud conviction but has put forward European Parliament President Antonio Tajani as his prime ministerial nominee.
His four-party coalition was expected to win between 31 and 41 percent of the vote, followed by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement with 29-32 percent, according to an exit poll published by Rai public television.
An exit poll by private channel La7 put Berlusconi's coalition at between 32 and 37.6 percent and the Five Star Movement between 28.8 and 30.8 percent.
The ruling centre-left Democratic Party was trailing in third place, according to the exit polls.
'Pure populism'
The vote comes after a gloomy campaign characterised by anti-immigration tub-thumping, widespread public anger at Italy's slow economic recovery and clashes between far-right and anti-fascist activists.
The killing of a teenaged recovering drug addict blamed on Nigerian immigrants last month inflamed tensions.
The murder prompted a racist "revenge" gun rampage by a fascist sympathiser, who shot and wounded six Africans.
The right has promised to deport 600,000 "illegal" migrants and block new arrivals -- a prospect judged unfeasible by the ruling centre-left government.
The surge in right-wing and populist parties has drawn comparisons to Britain's vote to leave the European Union and the rise of US President Donald Trump.
Former White House adviser Steve Bannon -- the man who helped Trump ride a populist wave to power -- told the Italian press that a hookup between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the anti-immigration League was "the ultimate dream".
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