Donald Trump Taiwan phone call: Behind China’s measured reaction

Mr Trump spoke to Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen on Friday, becoming the first President or President-elect to do so in decades in a major break from US policy.

While some questioned the move and Beijing said it signalled his “inexperience” with foreign policy, Mr Trump remained defiant, implying he didn’t need China’s permission to talk to anyone.

Today Mr Trump called China out on Twitter, pointing out that it didn’t seek America’s permission to manipulate its currency, tax US products or build military installations in the South China Sea.

The obvious implication was that Mr Trump doesn’t want to be dictated to either.

Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency (making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2016

their country (the U.S. doesn't tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea? I don't think so!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2016

Many expected a furious reaction from Beijing after Mr Trump became the first US leader or President-elect since 1979 to speak with Taiwan’s leader Tsai Ing-wen.

Instead, the reaction was far more measured from Beijing while Mr Trump’s camp downplayed the significance of the contact.

POLICY BREAK

China regards self-ruling Taiwan as part of its own territory awaiting reunification under Beijing’s rule.

Any US move implying support for independence — even calling Ms Tsai “President”, as Trump did in a tweet announcing the call — has the potential to spark massive offence in China.

Friday’s conversation between Mr Trump and Ms Tsai broke decades of US diplomatic policy.

Crucially it also risks creating a serious rift with China by calling into question one of Beijing’s self-described “core interests” — the “One China” policy.

No US President or President-elect has spoken to a Taiwanese leader since then-President Richard Nixon agreed in 1978 to Beijing’s policy.

Washington cut formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 and no US President or President-elect is believed to have spoken to a Taiwanese leader since then.

The status of Taiwan has been one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations.

China regards Taiwan as part of its territory to be retaken by force, if necessary, if it seeks independence and Beijing would regard any recognition of a Taiwanese leader as a head of state as unacceptable.

Taiwan split from the Chinese mainland in 1949.

While US policy acknowledges the Chinese view over sovereignty, it officially considers Taiwan’s status as unsettled.

CHINA’S REACTION

Chinese state media said Mr Trump’s “inexperience” led him to accept the phone call while warning that any breach of the “One China” stance would “destroy” China-US relations.

The call drew an irritated, although understated, response from China with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday calling the contact “just a small trick by Taiwan” that he believed would not change US policy toward China, according to Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV.

“The one-China policy is the cornerstone of the healthy development of China-US relations and we hope this political foundation will not be interfered with or damaged,” Mr Wang was quoted as saying.

Chinese officials said they lodged a complaint with the US and reiterated a commitment to seeking “reunification” with the island, which they consider a renegade province.

China’s foreign ministry also confirmed Beijing has lodged “solemn representations” with the US over the call.

“It must be pointed out that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory,” Geng Shuang, a ministry spokesman, said in a statement.

“The government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing China.”

The China Daily was measured in its response reflecting an apparent desire to avoid confrontation with President-elect Trump.

In an editorial it said there was “no need to over-interpret” the property tycoon’s “unusual action”.

‘UPSET THE BALANCE’

Writing in The Conversation , George Kyris argued Washington, like most of the rest of the world, didn’t formally recognise the Taiwanese government because relations with China were too important.

However by breaking with tradition and talking to the Taiwanese government, “Trump has upset this fine balance — and China isn’t happy. In fact, they have issued a formal diplomatic protest,” he writes.

He also argues while it doesn’t sit well with Beijing it’s unlikely to lead to conflict because Taiwan won’t use the opportunity to further push for independence.

Taiwan’s “Three Noes” policy (no independence, no unification and no use of force has allowed the country to maintain good relations with both China and the rest of the world.

In an editorial for The Daily Beast , Gordon G Chang writes that far from putting America on the road to war, Mr Trump has taken the first steps towards stabilising East Asia.

While previous administrations have pretended the island nation doesn’t officially exist, Mr Trump’s move represents a bigger deal that most people thing.

“The Trump transition team’s readout of the Tsai conversation signalled a momentous shift in direction,” he writes.

“The President-elect essentially recognised the island as a sovereign state by calling her ‘President of Taiwan’.”

However, the consequences are far bigger he argues.

“By calling Taiwan a separate state, indirectly told the Chinese he is not afraid of them, saying, in effect, he does not respect their most important concerns,” he writes.

“He is, in a real sense, starting a new relationship with Beijing, putting everything China has won in the past four decades back on the table.”

‘ON FILE’

While Trump’s advisers say Beijing’s measured response proves the call isn’t as big a deal as some may claim, other experts aren’t so sure.

John Delury, an East Asia expert from Yonsei University in Seoul, told The Guardian China’s cool response didn’t mean there wasn’t anger there.

“I think it would be a mistake to think he got a pass. You don’t get a pass on Taiwan. So I think it goes in his file,” he said.

“They are holding their fire but they are sizing him up. I think a classic mistake would be for Trump and his people to think: ‘Wow, we got away with it. We can do that. Great!’”

He also said it would appear to Beijing that Mr Trump was being provocative and waving a red flag.

Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai acknowledged it wasn’t that much of an issue at the moment since Mr Trump was still a private citizen.

However he warned that could change very quickly come inauguration day and it wouldn’t be for the better.

“I would close our embassy in Washington and withdraw our diplomats,” he toldThe New York Times .

“I would be perfectly happy to end the relationship. I don’t know how you are then going to expect China to co-operate on Iran and North Korea and climate change. You are going to ask Taiwan for that?”

 

Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the call could have implications for future relations.

Mr Trump is just “shooting from the hip, trying to take phone calls of congratulatory messages from leaders around the world without consideration for the implications.

“China is now likely to be trying to identify whether this call signals any intent on the part of Trump to alter longstanding US policy toward Taiwan, she said.

“They will hope that this is a misstep, but I think privately, they will definitely seek to educate this incoming President and ensure that he understands the sensitivity of Taiwan.”

‘NO BIG DEAL’

Despite the controversy, Mr Trump’s camp have brushed off criticism about accepting the call while some prominent US conservatives are commending the move.

US Vice President-elect Mike Pence insisted yesterday that the phone conversation with the leader of Taiwan was just a “courtesy call”.

“It was nothing more than taking a courtesy call from a democratically elected leader,” Mr Pence told ABC’s This Week.

Mr Trump “took the call, accepted her congratulations and good wishes and it was precisely that,” Mr Pence said.

Asked directly if there were any implications for the “One China” policy he said: “We’ll deal with policy after January the 20th,” he said, referring to the day that Trump takes office.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz — Trump’s main challenger and a fierce critic during this year’s Republican primary race — tweeted on Saturday that it wasn’t necessarily a bad move.

“I would much rather have Donald Trump talking to President Tsai than to Cuba’s Raul Castro or Iran’s Hasan Rouhani,” he tweeted.

“This is an improvement.”

President Barack Obama has spoken with Rouhani by phone, and met Castro on a trip to Cuba.

Ari Fleischer, White House spokesman under former President George W Bush, didn’t think that accepting the call was a bad idea.

“China has been increasingly aggressive with us because they know we won’t do anything meaningful about it,” Mr Fleischer tweeted.

“I don’t mind Trump pushing back.”

Mr Trump’s other defenders included Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton.

“I commend President-elect Trump for his conversation with President Tsai Ing-wen, which reaffirms our commitment to the only democracy on Chinese soil,” he said in a statement.

Conservative journalist Stephen Hayes also asked what the big deal was.

“Obama breaks w/decades of US policy on Cuba & gets endless fawning coverage,” he tweeted. “Trump breaks w/US policy by phoning Taiwan & he’s reckless?”
 

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

Douglas Paal, a former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, which unofficially represents US interests in Taipei, told The Associated Press it was too soon to judge whether Mr Trump was going to lead that shift, or if the incident was just a “complicated accident”.

“Beijing will watch closely to see which it is,” said Mr Paal, now vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“But until someone from Trump Tower explains further, it is unknowable.”

The US shifted diplomatic recognition to China from Taiwan in 1979. But Washington and Taipei have maintained close unofficial ties and deep economic and defence relations.

The US is required by law to provide Taiwan with weapons to maintain its defence, and since 2009, the Obama administration has approved $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.

FOREIGN POLICY PIVOT?

While the global reaction seemed mixed, some critics thought Mr Trump had crossed a dangerous line.

“What has happened in the last 48 hours is not a shift. These are major pivots in foreign policy w/out any plan. That’s how wars start,” tweeted Democratic Senator Chris Murphy.

Senior Trump aide Kellyanne Conway brushed aside the criticism, insisting that the call did not necessarily indicate a change of policy.

“Senator Murphy’s tweet is pretty incendiary,” she told CNN late on Friday.

“This is how wars are starting and it is a major policy shift because you get a phone call? That is pretty negative.”

Asked whether Mr Trump’s decision to take Tsai’s call was the result of a mistake by an inexperienced staff, she said the real estate billionaire was fully aware of the implications.

Speaking on Fox News Sunday, Ms Conway said that her boss “is well aware” of Washington’s “One-China” policy.

“It was just a phone call at this point. It signals the fact that he accepted a congratulatory call,” Ms Conway said.

“I know China has a perspective on it. The White House and State Department probably have a perspective on it. Certainly Taiwan has a perspective on it. The President-elect’s perspective is he accepted a congratulatory call.

“When he’s sworn in as commander-in-chief, he’ll make clear the fullness of his plans. But people shouldn’t read too much into it,” she said.

— with AFP/AP