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Trump says Ukraine can win back all its land. It’s not that simple.

While Ukrainian officials say a massive influx of arms and technology is key to a major offensive to retake territory, analysts do not see that coming.

Service members of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled gun toward Russian troops in the front line in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Sept. 18. (Serhii Korovainyi/Reuters)
Service members of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled gun toward Russian troops in the front line in the Donetsk region of Ukraine on Sept. 18. (Serhii Korovainyi/Reuters)

KYIV — President Donald Trump’s stunning claim this week that Ukraine could win back all its land with support from the European Union and NATO is far-fetched barring a dramatic shift in the alliance’s response to Russia’s invasion, according to military experts, officials and diplomats working in the region.

Still, future major Ukrainian gains cannot be entirely ruled out, many said, especially if the Russian war economy chokes and Ukraine significantly strengthens its military and weapons arsenal with support from its partners, including the United States — an outcome that appears unlikely as Trump punts support for Kyiv to Europe.

If Washington were to agree to support Ukraine at 100 percent of its capacity by sending advanced weaponry including cluster munitions and new weapons systems such as HIMARS and ATACMS, then Trump’s “statement is absolutely truthful, 100 percent,” said a senior official in Ukraine’s military command, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press.

Mass shipments of U.S. weaponry would “immediately boost morale” to improve recruitment and battlefield performance, and reverse ingrained problems such as shortages of ammunition and artillery rounds, paving the way for rapid Ukrainian advances, he said.

“The American partners know our priorities. The list is on the table. If they could provide us this list, these items we requested, I think the result will even be visible by the end of the year,” the official said.

NATO officials and diplomats have in recent months described a bleak assessment of Kyiv’s ability to retake sizable territory. While Ukraine’s massive drone industry and the recent arrangement for Kyiv to get U.S. weapons funded by the Europeans have bought its forces more time than expected on the front, a major offensive would be fraught.

Without a big shift in diplomacy or weaponry, most officials instead predict the grinding war to continue.

The sheer proliferation of drones, and recent advances in their technology, also means it will be difficult if not impossible for either side to make sudden advances — especially as winter approaches and tree cover disappears. In the meantime, Russia continues to make small local gains in several regions, even as Kyiv claws some land back in the east. The gradual movements are negligible compared to Russia’s initial advance in 2022, but still demonstrate an advantage.

 

Ukrainian servicemen of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade prepare a drone for a flight at an undisclosed location near the frontline in the Kharkiv region, northeastern Ukraine, on Wednesday. (Yevhen Titov/EPA/Shutterstock)
Ukrainian servicemen of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade prepare a drone for a flight at an undisclosed location near the frontline in the Kharkiv region, northeastern Ukraine, on Wednesday. (Yevhen Titov/EPA/Shutterstock)

 

 

“It may be slow,” said a NATO official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive security assessments, like others in this article. But “if you look at the amount of force Russia brings to this fight, the air and drone attacks, the momentum is on Russia’s side.”

Even so, Ukraine’s allies don’t expect a major collapse of its defense lines, the official said, and “the level of aid can certainly change the dynamics.”

The Kremlin — facing fierce Ukrainian resistance — is struggling to achieve even Putin’s revised objectives, such as seizing the entirety of four regions he already claims to have annexed. NATO estimates Russia would be unable to control all four even in the next three years at their current pace.

Some note, however, that even if Ukraine’s backers met its aspirations for cash and weapons, Ukraine faces a troop shortage that impacts the fighting — although Kyiv argues that improved resources would motivate more people to sign up.

“The hard battlefield reality is that in Donbas, over the last couple of months, the Russians made progress, square kilometer by square kilometer … and despite all the billions we give Ukraine, it has proven impossible to stop them,” said a NATO diplomat.

“We see the Russians meeting mobilization targets easier, the troop ratio is not favorable to Ukrainians,” the diplomat added. “They need to mobilize and it’s up to us to equip and train those brigades.”

Former Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov said he has always believed Ukraine is capable of winning the war if partners provide the right aid at the right time.

“David and Goliath,” he said. “It’s a very famous story. Ukrainians are brave, smart and creative. We are using different techniques like sling and stone neutralizing the difference in manpower. And certainly we have the civilized world behind us.”

A Ukrainian victory is possible, he said, even without Western boots on the ground. “We don’t need it,” he said. What would better help Ukraine: “Financial support. Weapons. Cutting-edge technology. Political support. Tight sanctions against Russia.”

“I am absolutely convinced” that Ukraine could win back its territory if the West significantly ramped up its support, one senior European diplomat agreed. But that would require more weaponry and cash — none of which is guaranteed.

“Since the 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia managed to capture 1 percent of Ukrainian territory. That speaks for itself,” the diplomat said, also on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.

But any scenario in which Ukraine makes major gains would certainly not be achievable “with the drip-drip of armaments they have been getting.”

Author: Siobhán O'Grady, Ellen Francis and Steve Hendrix

Source: The Washington Post

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