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Trump's next peace priority is Ukraine-Russia. Here's why it will be harder than Gaza

U.S. president meets Zelenskyy, while floating possibility of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine

Mike Crawley 

Trump and Zelenskyy, seated in chairs with a backdrop of the Ukraine and U.S. flags, lean toward each other in conversation.
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23. (Evan Vucci/The Associated Press)

 

Riding high on acclaim for his role in brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of Israeli hostages, U.S. President Donald Trump is turning his attention to the conflict he long boasted he would end on his first day back in office: Russia's war with Ukraine.

Trump is scheduled to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, a day after the U.S. president made what he described as "great progress" in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Zelenskyy is trying to draw a link between Trump's success in the Middle East and his potential for stopping the war in Europe.

"It is important not to lose the momentum for advancing peace," Zelenskyy wrote on social media this week. "The right actions by the U.S. can also help bring an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine."

Despite Zelenskyy's hopes, and despite Trump's insistence he can bring peace between Russia and Ukraine, experts say it will be a far more difficult task than ending the war between Israel and Hamas.

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank in Washington, D.C., says any parallels between the two conflicts are remote.

"In the case of Israel-Hamas, the war was almost over," Kupchan told CBC News. "Trump had to get it across the finish line, but it was almost done on the battlefield. Not the case at all in Russia-Ukraine."

Kupchan says another key difference is the how much more leverage the U.S. has over Israel than it has over Russia.

 

Soldiers wearing fatigues carry a coffin, draped in the Ukrainian flag, on their shoulders.
Ukrainian servicemen carry the coffin of Oleh Pyvovar, a soldier who was killed in combat in the Donetsk region, during a funeral on Thursday in Irpin, Ukraine. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press)

 

Sanctions not providing leverage

"The U.S. is Israel's main backer, provides diplomatic support, economic support, military support, technological cooperation. None of that exists between the United States and Russia," he said.

Western sanctions haven't provided much leverage either, given Russia's trade and economic links to China and India.

"The idea that somehow we're going to strangle the Russian economy and that's going to bring the war to an end, it's not credible," said Kupchan.

Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington, says stopping Russia's war on Ukraine poses a greater challenge for Trump than brokering the deal in Gaza.

"We are talking about very different types of conflicts," Snegovaya said.

 

Putin, wearing a dark suit, stands in front of a blue screen with the words Russia Energy 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a session of the Russian Energy Week forum, in Moscow on Thursday. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/The Associated Press/Pool)

 

"It's unlikely that he is going to be able to achieve a major breakthrough, at least in the foreseeable future, as long as Putin has the [military] resources, unless Trump is willing to not just use carrots, but also use sticks," she said.

One stick that Trump is waving at Putin is the possibility of providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have the range to hit targets deep inside Russia.

Trump says he spoke about the missiles Thursday during his phone call with Putin.

"I did actually say, 'Would you mind if I gave a couple of thousand Tomahawks to your opposition?'" Trump told reporters at the White House. "I said it just that way. He didn't like the idea."

 

 

The Tomahawks are expected to be a key focus of Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy on Friday.

While analysts say the missiles would significantly boost Ukraine's capacity to strike at Russia, neither Kupchan nor Snegovaya see the weaponry as the silver bullet that forces the Kremlin into a peace deal.

 

WATCH | Zelenskyy speaks to Trump, Carney:

 

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he's had phone calls with Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump about defence and energy infrastructure. Russian strikes have led to widespread blackouts in Ukraine. Media ID:

Snegovaya says Russia's economy needs to be seriously undermined before Putin will become serious about making any concessions.

"Russia tends to stop fighting its wars... when it's economically in trouble and when its ability to sustain the war is becoming increasingly problematic for domestic reasons," Snegovaya said, adding, "I do not believe we are there at this point."

Kupchan says Ukraine having Tomahawks would shift Putin's cost-benefit analysis on prolonging the war, but would not be a true game-changer.

"Putin has to be convinced that he's not going to win. Putin has to be convinced that time is not on his side," Kupchan said.

"Unfortunately, what Trump has done has made the opposite case," he said. "On some level, he's been sending a message to Putin that encourages the Kremlin to keep coming."

Trump says he'll meet Putin in Hungary "within two weeks or so," which would be roughly two months after the pair met at their much-hyped gathering in Alaska that failed to bring the war any closer to an end.

Despite all the evidence that the ceasefire-and-hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas is no template for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, Trump is still oozing confidence.

"Who would think I created peace in the Middle East and can't get [Putin and Zelenskyy] to settle?" he said Thursday during an event in the Oval Office. "But I think we'll get them."

Source: CBC News:

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