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The NBA Playoffs Are Months Away. But Math Says Only Three Teams Can Win the Title.

According to basketball history, a team must win 40 games before it loses 20 to be a genuine championship contender. This year, three teams make the cut.

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives against Celtics guard Jaylen Brown. PHOTO: NATE BILLINGS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives against Celtics guard Jaylen Brown. PHOTO: NATE BILLINGS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The NBA playoffs are still almost two months away. When they tip off, 16 teams will do battle for the chance to be called the best basketball team in the world.

According to one time-tested rule of thumb, though, most of them can forget about being crowned champions this season. In fact, the number of teams with a genuine chance to win the title is down to just three.

The “40-20 rule,” attributed to legendary Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson, is a formula for assessing a team’s championship bona fides before the postseason has even begun. The test is simple. To be considered a true contender, a team must win 40 games before it loses 20.

In Jackson’s case, the rule never failed. All 11 championship teams he coached in Chicago and Los Angeles met the mark. (And the 2004 Lakers, who lost in the Finals in an upset against the Pistons, did not.) Even the 1970s Knicks, with whom Jackson won two titles as a player, passed the test in each case, going 40-11 in the 1969-70 season and 40-12 in 1972-73.

 

Donovan Mitchell, left, and the Cavaliers have the best record in the Eastern Conference.
Donovan Mitchell, left, and the Cavaliers have the best record in the Eastern Conference. PHOTO: NATE BILLINGS/ASSOCIATED PRESS


This year, as the calendar approaches the 60-game point, only three teams meet the criteria. They are the defending-champion Boston Celtics, who have shaken off a midseason swoon to win 10 of their last 11 games; the Oklahoma City Thunder, with the NBA’s best defense; and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who overhauled their team with new head coach Kenny Atkinson’s turbocharged attack.

Casual NBA fans often gripe that the regular season, with an 82-game slate that allows more than half the league’s teams into the playoffs, doesn’t matter anymore. But looked at through the lens of the “40-20” rule, history suggests something different: that regular-season dominance is the easiest way to forecast playoff success. Since the league expanded its playoffs to the current 16-team format, in the 1983-84 season, 40 teams have been crowned NBA champions, excluding the lockout-shortened 1998-99 year.

In all, 36 of those—90%—met the “40-20” criteria.

If you’re a fan of one of the other 27 teams, don’t write off the season just yet, though. Because like any good rule, this one has some exceptions. Among the teams that didn’t hit the mark in the regular season and still went on to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy in the summer are the 1995 Houston Rockets and 2004 Detroit Pistons.

Both teams traded for a star player in the middle of the season. In Houston’s case, it was a deal for guard Clyde Drexler. In Detroit’s case, forward Rasheed Wallace rode to the rescue.

If those scenarios sound a little familiar, it’s because there’s a team that sits at 35-21 this season and still harbors championship hopes. The Lakers are an altogether different team than the one started the season, having traded this month for superstar guard Luka Doncic. They have won 13 of their last 16 games.

Now they just have one thing left to do: beat history.

 

LeBron James and Luka Doncic are hoping the Lakers can be an exception to the 40-20 rule.
LeBron James and Luka Doncic are hoping the Lakers can be an exception to the 40-20 rule. PHOTO: KYUSUNG GONG/ASSOCIATED PRESS


Write to Robert O’Connell at robert.oconnell@wsj.com

Author: Robert O’Connell

Source: WSJ:

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