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LeBron James Has Done Everything in the NBA. Except This.

James’s average of points, rebounds and assists are extraordinary. But they also hide a remarkable quirk of his career.
Lakers forward LeBron James has a career average of 27 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. MARK J. REBILAS/REUTERS

Lakers forward LeBron James has a career average of 27 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. MARK J. REBILAS/REUTERS

LeBron James might be the most multitalented player that basketball has ever seen. But nothing underlines his qualities of top-grade athleticism, supercomputer intellect and unmatched endurance quite as clearly as his career average of 27 points, 7 assists and 7 rebounds per game.

To put that in context, only eight other players have ever hit those marks in an individual season.

The most remarkable thing about those numbers, however, might be this: Somehow, during his entire career, James has never actually posted a 27-7-7 stat line in a single game. Not even once.

Rebounds and assists in games where LeBron James has scored exactly 27 points

 
Source: Brian Macdonald and Shinpei Nakamura-Sakai, Yale University
Source: Brian Macdonald and Shinpei Nakamura-Sakai, Yale University
 

At first glance, this seems next to impossible. James has played 1,478 regular-season games, plus 282 more across 16 postseasons. Over the years, he’s been within one point, rebound or assist of his average line a dozen times—one more measly made free-throw, when he was 19 with the Cleveland Cavaliers or 38 with the Los Angeles Lakers, would have gotten him there.

Just how improbable is it that James has never hit his 27-7-7 average? The answer doubles as a math lesson.

Brian Macdonald and Shinpei Nakamura-Sakai, a data science lecturer and graduate researcher at Yale University, calculated that the chances of James failing to tally that exact line, this deep into his career, were slim but hardly nonexistent: about 27%. With a player as versatile as James, Macdonald explained, statistical output fluctuates more than it would with an average athlete. Some games he might have 40 points and five assists, some games 20 and 15.

“Maybe what makes LeBron a little bit unique is that his focus has shifted a little bit in later years, where he’s focusing on playmaking,” Macdonald said, pointing out the seesaw effect between points and assists.
 

LeBron James has played 1,478 regular-season games, plus 282 more across 16 postseasons. PHOTO: RONALD MARTINEZ/GETTY IMAGES
LeBron James has played 1,478 regular-season games, plus 282 more across 16 postseasons. PHOTO: RONALD MARTINEZ/GETTY IMAGES


Abraham Wyner, a statistics professor at the Wharton School, likewise found James not landing on his averages even once a little unlikely, but not completely unfathomable. “Just because something is average doesn’t mean it’s common,” Wyner said. “The second thing is, when you multiply probabilities, the odds go rapidly to zero.”

To anyone who’s ever placed a prop bet, James’s near misses might feel familiar. If he’d hustled for one fewer rebound, in a 2017 Cavaliers loss to the Hawks, he’d have landed right on the magic numbers. Same if a teammate had knocked in a jump shot off of one of his passes against the New York Knicks in 2006. 

To add insult to curiosity, the 27-7-7 has been achieved by some of James’s primary rivals. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have done it once apiece, Russell Westbrook twice.

In the twilight of his playing days, James has talked about his wish to own an expansion NBA franchise in Las Vegas. His own career would make for a good lesson in the gambling capital of the world: Stay away from combination bets that require too many outcomes to break right.

“This,” Wyner said, “is why people shouldn’t do parlays.”

Write to Robert O’Connell at robert.oconnell@wsj.com

Author: Editors Desk, By Robert O’Connell

Source: WSJ:

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