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Breaking down 20 years of election data that shows how the two parties have evolved in the Trump era

The 2024 election was the first in two decades that saw a Republican popular vote victory. The trends since then illustrate extreme changes in the two parties.

From left, President George W. Bush, President Barack Obama, President Donald Trump.Getty Images

From left, President George W. Bush, President Barack Obama, President Donald Trump.Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s second election win was different from his first in one big, important way: He won the popular vote, just the second time in the last two decades that Republicans had done so.

And in the time between those two victories, from 2004 to 2024, there have been dramatic shifts in the nation’s politics along geographic, racial, educational and economic lines. Trump is operating in a very different Republican Party than George W. Bush was 20 years earlier. A look at where the vote has shifted most in that time tells an eye-catching story.

Over the last 20 years, the counties where Republicans have improved their presidential vote share by the largest margins are predominately centered in Appalachia and the surrounding areas. The 100 counties that saw the largest shifts include: 11 of West Virginia’s 55 counties, 27 of Tennessee’s 95 counties, 18 of Arkansas’ 75 counties and 17 of Kentucky’s 120 counties.

These counties, on the whole, are much more heavily white than average, according to census data, with white residents making up at least 90% of the total population in about two-thirds of these counties. All but 12 of those counties are at least 75% white. The unemployment rate across these counties is about twice the national average. Residents are more likely to be reliant on food stamps and less likely to have moved in the last year. Residents of these counties, on average, also are significantly less likely to have a bachelor’s degree or higher.

While the national average in the American Community Survey’s most recent five-year estimate is that 35% of Americans have a bachelor’s degree or higher, the average in these counties is just 14%.

In short, the shifts show how Trump has brought more white working-class voters into the GOP, causing spectacular changes in some localities.

Elliott County, Kentucky, with about 7,300 people, shifted the most over this time period. While Democrat John Kerry carried the county over Bush 70%-29%, the county shifted significantly to the right by Democrat Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election, when Obama narrowly outran Republican Mitt Romney 49%-47%. The county continued to shift with Trump on the ballot, ultimately with Trump winning a higher vote share in 2024 (80%) than Kerry did in 2004.

It’s a similar story in many of these other counties — particularly those in states like West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee, where rural voters that once voted Democratic have been leaving the party, especially at the presidential level.

 

In the Trump era, heavily Hispanic counties shifted right

A different look — at the counties with the largest pro-Republican shifts between Trump’s three elections, from 2016 to 2024 — shows some major differences in the types of places that have moved to the right specifically within the Trump era.

On average, the 100 counties that shifted most toward Republicans in the Trump era are significantly more Hispanic than the national average. These counties are also wealthier and more educated compared to the counties that moved most from 2004 to 2024, although they are still below the national average.

While the biggest Republican-shifting counties from 2004 to 2024 are largely concentrated around Appalachia, the counties that shifted the most to the right in the Trump era are more spread out and predominantly in the South and West.

Twenty-nine Texas counties show up in the list of 100 counties that saw the greatest gain in GOP presidential vote margin between 2016 and 2024, and 12 of those are among the 20 that saw the biggest shifts. All of these Texas counties are majority-Hispanic, and some are more than 90% Hispanic, emblematic of Trump’s dramatic improvement among Hispanic voters in 2024 as well as his success in heavily Hispanic areas along the border in 2020.

 

 

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Another heavily Hispanic county, Miami-Dade County, saw the 15th-largest shift in margin toward Republicans between 2016 and 2024 out of more than 3,000 counties nationwide. Other major population centers in New York City — including the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens — are in the top 100 too. And the 14 counties in Utah are typical of another trend: Many Republicans initially skeptical of Trump in 2016 (including Mormons, who make up a significant part of the electorate in Utah) largely fell in line eight years later.

Where Democrats have made their biggest gains

Democrats have seen their own shifts — the flip side of those GOP gains in a country that has remained tightly divided even as the two party coalitions have shifted significantly from 20 years ago.

While the counties that saw the largest GOP gains over the last two decades were predominantly rural and small, the counties where Democrats improved the most are much larger, primarily in suburban and urban areas. The 100 counties where the GOP presidential vote margin grew most over the last two decades cast just 782,000 votes in 2024. The 100 counties that saw the most improvement in the Democratic presidential vote margin cast almost 20 million votes all together in 2024.

Those Democratic-trending counties include key constituencies that have become more important to the party’s coalition in recent years. On average, they are more heavily Black, more wealthy, more educated and more urban, an unsurprising mix of voters mobilized in the Obama era and those who have fled the Republican Party in the Trump era. They’re also broadly more likely to have more newer residents — according to census data, those Democratic-trending counties have higher-than-average shares of residents who have recently moved to the county.

Many of those major trends intersect in exurban and suburban Georgia, particularly in the Atlanta metro area. Seven Georgia counties are among the top eight that saw the most movement toward Democrats the two decades since 2004: Rockdale, Henry, Douglas, Gwinnett, Newton, Cobb and Fayette counties. All but Newton are in metro Atlanta, all are at least one-quarter Black, and most have higher incomes and education rates than the national average.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Extremely wealthy and highly educated areas in northern Virginia, as well as counties like Teton County, Wyoming — home to the ritzy Jackson Hole ski resorts as well as major national parks — and Los Alamos County, New Mexico — home to the Department of Energy laboratory that helped develop the atomic bomb — are also among the counties that swung most toward Democrats over this period. Los Alamos County is particularly symbolic: It has the highest share of Ph.D.s among residents of any county in the country.

Two more notable counties included in this list are Sarpy and Douglas counties in Nebraska, which make up the vast majority of the state’s 2nd Congressional District — the “blue dot” that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the last two presidential elections, securing one electoral vote even as Trump carried the state.

Democrats have gained in wealthier, whiter and more educated counties in the Trump era

The counties that shifted most toward Democrats between 2016 and 2024, the Trump era, are significantly whiter and slightly older than those that moved most over the last two decades. Twenty are in Colorado and nine are in Utah, but there are a handful of important counties in the Midwest too.

The two counties that saw the biggest Democratic shifts in the last eight years are both in Utah: Utah and Davis counties, around Provo and Salt Lake City, respectively. There’s an important caveat here: In 2016, independent candidate Evan McMullin won 21% of the vote, deflating both parties’ vote shares.

Looking at more competitive states, almost one-third of Colorado’s counties were among the 100 with the largest Democratic shifts in the Trump era, as were 11 in Georgia.

Grand Traverse County, Michigan, and Ozaukee County, Wisconsin, have also seen more recent shifts, emblematic of how some educated, suburban Republican strongholds have been moving toward Democrats with Trump on the ballot. But those gains have been more moderate, an increase of 7 percentage points in the Democratic margin between 2016 and 2024 in Ozaukee, and 8 percentage points in Grand Traverse.

 

Author: Ben Kamisar

Source: NBC News

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