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What to know about Germany’s 2025 federal election

Friedrich Merz, a conservative rival of Angela Merkel, is on track to become the next chancellor, though the far-right AfD is expected to make historic gains.

Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic Union party, closes out his campaign in Oberhausen, Germany, on Friday. (Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters)

Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the Christian Democratic Union party, closes out his campaign in Oberhausen, Germany, on Friday. (Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters)

BERLIN — Germany’s federal election on Sunday is widely expected to result in a drubbing for the current chancellor, set a longtime rival of Chancellor Angela Merkel on the path to become leader and make a far-right party the second-strongest force in parliament — 80 years after the defeat of fascism.

 

The far right is set to make historic gains — but not win

The far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has for months polled in second position behind the conservatives, wavering between 20 and 22 percent of the vote share. Such a result would be a huge leap for a party that entered the Bundestag for the first time in 2017 with 12.6 percent. And it would be something of a shock for Germany, where supporting politicians who advocate nationalist, anti-pluralist positions has been considered taboo for much of society since World War II.

The chances of the AfD coming into power in this election cycle, however, remain extremely low. Other parties have repeatedly vowed to maintain the “fire wall” and refuse to partner with the AfD in post-election coalition talks. Support for the AfD from the Trump administration did little to boost the party in the final push of campaigning.

 

Friedrich Merz is expected to become the next chancellor

Friedrich Merz applauds onstage with other CDU party leaders during the last campaign rally in Oberhausen, Germany, on Friday. (Volker Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Voters in Germany don’t directly elect a chancellor. Instead, they determine the makeup of the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, by voting for a geographic representative as well as for a party list. Parliament then elects a chancellor after a coalition deal is signed and sealed. In this election, Friedrich Merz is best positioned to be that person. 

Merz is from the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the same party as former chancellor Angela Merkel. But he has pulled their party much further to the right, especially on immigration policy — last month she openly criticized him for relying on far-right support to pass an immigration motion in parliament.

Merz is a longtime Transatlanticist who has questioned the reliability of the United States as a partner following recent comments by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. He supports increased defense spending but has suggested cutting benefits to Ukrainian refugees in Germany. One of his biggest challenges would be addressing his country’s budget crisis and stalled economy. At 69, he would be Germany’s oldest chancellor since Konrad Adenauer in 1949.

 

It could take months before there is a government

Merz’s first challenge, though — if his conservatives come out top — would be forming a government. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, are getting a collective 32 percent in voter intent surveys. They would need a coalition partner — or partners — to achieve a majority.

The longest coalition talks in reunified Germany dragged on for nearly six months before Merkel’s final government was formed. This time, with pressing global and domestic issues, the parties will aim to wrap up talks within a couple of months. Since Merz has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, the most likely combinations are “Grand Coalition” with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party or a “Black-Green” government with the Greens.

 

Germans are voting early because of a budget fight

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz waves during a campaign rally for his Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Dortmund, Germany, on Friday. (Jana Rodenbusch/Reuters)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz waves during a campaign rally for his Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Dortmund, Germany, on Friday. (Jana Rodenbusch/Reuters)

 

 

Federal elections in Germany typically take place every four years. This round was originally scheduled for the fall, but was moved forward after the last government collapsed in November. The center-left “traffic light coalition” — made up of the SPD, Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — was fragile from the time it first came to power in late 2021. Infighting increased as the German economy stagnated and the AfD made historic gains in state elections in the east. A dispute over the 2025 budget eventually culminated in an uncharacteristically dramatic showdown, with Scholz firing his finance minister, FDP leader Christian Lindner.

 

Immigration and the economy are driving many people’s votes

General malaise among the electorate set the stage for a short election campaign focusing on the woes of Europe’s largest economy. But three attacks by non-German nationals thrust the issue of immigration, asylum and domestic security to the top of the campaigning agenda. Global affairs have played less of a role, despite the Trump administration’s moves to cut Europe out of negotiations with Russia over peace in Ukraine and its threats to pull back from U.S. security commitments in Europe.
 

The performance of the left could offer an element of surprise

Just weeks ago, Germany’s left-wing Die Linke seemed unlikely to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to retain seats in the Bundestag. It has been plagued by internal rifts and the emergence of a new leftist populist party led by former lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht. But a surge in youth-driven momentum, fueled by viral moments, has boosted party membership and sparked a late polling surge. With a focus on social justice issues such as affordable housing and taxing the wealthy, Die Linke is attracting voters disillusioned with the center-left Social Democrats and Greens, while also offering a strong counter to the far-right AfD. Polls have even begun to suggest a slight possibility of a “Red-Red-Green” coalition — uniting the SPD, Greens and Left Party — that could in fact bypass Merz entirely, leaving the conservatives in the opposition with the AfD.

Kate Brady is a researcher and reporter based in The Washington Post's Berlin bureau. She has been at The Post since early 2023 and has been reporting from Germany for the best part of a decade.@bradyinberlin

Author: Editors Desk, Kate Brady

Source: The Washington Post

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