Nearly half a year into the US-Iran war, global oil stockpiles are rapidly diminishing as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively stalled and the two powers at the center of the hostilities argue about who controls the critical waterway.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that the strait – through which oil flows from countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq to the rest of the world – is under US control.
“They don’t have control. We have total control. We own it, and at some point, maybe they’ll do something, and then they get blown away,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “Right now, we’re in a very good position.” And earlier Wednesday, he claimed the US Navy had swept the strait for mines.
But Iran says it won’t reopen the strait fully until the US meets its conditions.
The reality is far more complicated than Trump’s proclamation of control, experts say – with ships fearing for their safety amid attacks on vessels in the strait, and the ever-looming threat of US-Iran strikes resuming.
Is the strait open, or closed?
The US naval blockade of Iran is still in effect, barring ships from going to or from any Iranian port either inside or outside the strait. This has strangled Iran’s cashflow and closed the strait to Iranian maritime trade.
There is still some traffic going through the Persian Gulf, headed to non-Iranian destinations. But that traffic is still just a fraction of pre-war levels. For instance, only 14 vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday – compared with the roughly 120 ships that used to cross daily before the war.
That’s largely because “few merchant shipping companies and their ships are confident that the US can ensure their safe transit of the strait,” said Carl Schuster, former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
Those fears are hardly unfounded. At least four vessels belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked by drones and missiles in the strait last week alone, the company said. And these attacks drive up insurance costs – further deterring shipping companies while the war rages on.
Besides outright attacks, Iran can also harass ships by flying drones overhead and doing “targeted surveillance of merchant shipping,” said the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) in a recent advisory.
Since the war began, there have been 54 reports of damage to vessels in the strait, or the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman which sit either side of it, according to UKMTO, a Royal Navy-affiliated body that monitors maritime security and shipping in the region.
There have also been three confirmed total losses of vessels, it said, and 13 near misses.
“Until you can ensure safe use of the strait, you do not have total control,” Schuster said.
CNN military analyst and retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton agreed that neither side has full control right now. “What you’re really dealing with is a standoff here,” he said.
“Because of the proximity of US forces, because of the blockade, and because of Iran’s ability and willingness to at least threaten the use of mines and the use of small boats to harass vessels … neither side is really able to exercise full control over the strait.”
Who has the upper hand?
Both the US and Iran have tools in their arsenal to apply pressure on the other and to harness some control over the strait, which normally carries 20% of the world’s oil, and an even higher proportion of the natural gas that some nations are critically reliant on.
Iran, lying right on the strait, has the advantage of proximity. It also has a “psychological and political upper hand,” Schuster said, since the disrupted maritime traffic offers them a political and strategic boost.
The strait’s closure has wreaked havoc on global economies and the energy sector, piling pressure on the US to find a solution or guarantee safe passage through the waterway. This pressure could influence the upcoming US midterm elections in November – another thing that could play to Iran’s favor if the new Congress forces Trump to end the war on terms advantageous to Tehran, Schuster said.
And Iran is prepared to bide its time, it seems, with a top adviser to its Revolutionary Guards saying Tuesday that it could “prolong” the war until Trump is out of office.
“We have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security,” Mohammad Reza Naqdi told PBS.
The US still has a clear military and economic advantage, with heavy sanctions on Iranian oil as well as Iranian assets frozen overseas, say experts.
But the US’ military forces in the region “are basically stretched pretty thin, and they’ve been there for quite some time,” said Leighton. That means the US needs to replenish its forces – by, for instance, rotating a new carrier battle group into the region – to increase its leverage in any negotiations with Iran over the strait.
And, he added, “the US leverage is limited by its staying power.” If the US backs off for any reason or loosens its grip on the blockade, it loses negotiating power and could have less say over the future of the strait, including which parties will govern it and what new rules are imposed for shipping.
That leaves Trump in a tough spot – at risk of losing leverage and having to make concessions if he pulls out, but under pressure to end the war and bring cost-of-living relief to his constituents ahead of crucial legislative votes, according to analysts.
